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Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change

Author

Listed:
  • Brian S. Fisher
  • Guy Jakeman
  • Hom M. Pant
  • Malte Schwoon
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Distinguishing features of this model, compared to other model for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the public domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline than assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between population growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:69
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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/populationwp.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:spr:portec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-004-0033-z is not listed on IDEAS
    2. P. Michael Link & Richard S. J. Tol, 2004. "Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 3(2), pages 99-114, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-103, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    2. Christine Schleupner & P. Michael Link, 2007. "Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes," Working Papers FNU-138, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.
    3. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 5310-5326.
    4. Calzadilla, Alvaro, 2010. "Global income distribution and poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES scenarios," Kiel Working Papers 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation," Working Papers FNU-104, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    6. P. Michael Link & Christine Schleupner, 2007. "Agricultural land use changes in Eiderstedt," Working Papers FNU-137, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population model; long term projections; global change; integrated assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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