The impact of climate change on global energy use

This paper presents a global analysis of the link between annual total energy use and temperature. A statistical model is used to estimate this link based on a panel dataset from 147 countries over the years 1990–2015. Results show that rich and poor countries exhibit differential response functions to temperature changes for annual total energy use. Unmitigated climate change by 2095 is projected to increase global total energy use on average by 24.0% relative to a baseline coupled with income and population growth without climate change. Poor countries are projected to face a larger increase in their energy use than rich countries over the years 2016–2095 and thus the projected impacts of future global warming on total energy use vary spatially—low-income countries will face significant increases, while cooler countries will experience reductions. Policy-makers need to incorporate socioeconomic factors and climate uncertainty into the projection of future climate change impacts on global energy use.