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The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

  • Enrica De Cian

    (School of Advanced Studies in Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Elisa Lanzi

    (School of Advanced Studies in Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Roberto Roson

    (University Ca’ Foscari of Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

This paper presents an empirical study of energy demand, in which demand for a series of energy goods (Gas, Oil Products, Coal, Electricity) is expressed as a function of various factors, including temperature. Parameter values are estimated econometrically, using a dynamic panel data approach. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage, and special emphasis is given to the dynamic nature of demand, as well as to interactions between income levels and sensitivity to temperature variations. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts. Results are interpreted in terms of derived demand for heating and cooling. Non-linearities and discontinuities emerge, making it necessary to distinguish between different countries, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature elasticities of demand are estimated.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2007.46.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.46
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  1. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers 2005.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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  5. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1997. "Non-linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric versus Non-parametric Methods," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 149-62, February.
  6. Henley, Andrew & Peirson, John, 1998. "Residential energy demand and the interaction of price and temperature: British experimental evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 157-171, April.
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  14. Cooper, Suzanne & Piehl, Anne Morrison & Braga, Anthony & Kennedy, David, 2001. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," Working Paper Series rwp01-019, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  15. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  16. Gunter Stephan & Renger Nieuwkoop & Thomas Wiedmer, 1992. "Social incidence and economic costs of carbon limits," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(6), pages 569-591, November.
  17. Moral-Carcedo, Julian & Vicens-Otero, Jose, 2005. "Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 477-494, May.
  18. Robert S. Pindyck, 2006. "Uncertainty In Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-38, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  20. Donald H. Rosenthal & Howard K. Gruenspecht & Emily A. Moran, 1995. "Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 77-96.
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  22. Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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