OECD Energy Demand: Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends using the Structural Time Series Model
Aggregate energy demand functions for 17 OECD countries are estimated with data for 1960-2003 using the Structural Time Series Model (STSM) thus allowing for a stochastic Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT). It is found that the estimated long-run income and price elasticities range from 0.5 to 1.5 and -0.1 to -0.4 respectively. Furthermore the stochastic form for the UEDT is preferred for all countries suggesting a wide variation in the exogenous effects of energy saving technical progress in addition to other pertinent exogenous factors such as economic structure, consumer preferences, and socio-economic influences.
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- Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003.
"Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends,"
Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS)
105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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