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OECD Energy Demand: Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends using the Structural Time Series Model

  • Arqam Al-Rabbaie

    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    ()

    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Aggregate energy demand functions for 17 OECD countries are estimated with data for 1960-2003 using the Structural Time Series Model (STSM) thus allowing for a stochastic Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT). It is found that the estimated long-run income and price elasticities range from 0.5 to 1.5 and -0.1 to -0.4 respectively. Furthermore the stochastic form for the UEDT is preferred for all countries suggesting a wide variation in the exogenous effects of energy saving technical progress in addition to other pertinent exogenous factors such as economic structure, consumer preferences, and socio-economic influences.

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File URL: http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/Research/SEEDS/SEEDS114.pdf
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Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 114.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:114
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  1. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling underlying energy demand trends," Chapters, in: Energy in a Competitive Market, chapter 9 Edward Elgar.
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