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Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bosello

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Jian Zhang

    (EEE Program, Abdus Salam International Center of Theoretical Physics)

Abstract

The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and welfare; on the other hand its important distributional consequences as the stronger negative effects are concentrated on developing countries. The simulation exercise is introduced by a survey of the relevant literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.94
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruslana Rachel PALATNIK, "undated". "Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies," EcoMod2008 23800101, EcoMod.
    2. Juan-Carlos Ciscar & László Szabó & Denise Regemorter & Antonio Soria, 2012. "The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 Europe model: methodology and results," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 127-142, May.
    3. Roberto Roson & Enrica de Cian & Elisa Lanzi, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand a Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    4. Leclere, David & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, 2011. "Short-term Farm Level Adaptations of EU15 Agricultural Supply to Climate Change," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114391, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Martinsohn, Maria & Hansen, Heiko, 2012. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Economics of Dairy Farming – a Review and Evaluation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(2).
    6. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, number 110558.
    7. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38587, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    8. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Roberto Roson & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik, 2009. "Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies," Working Papers 2009_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    10. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2008. "Economic valuation of the impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44180, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Avanzini, Marco & Salvador, Isabella & Gios, Geremia, 2012. "Uomo e montagna tra economia tradizionale e cambiamenti climatici: il caso del Pasubio tra XVIII e XX secolo," Congress Papers 124126, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. repec:eee:appene:v:195:y:2017:i:c:p:556-571 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hung-Gay Fung & Jian Zhang, 2007. "An Assessment of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement Between China and Hong Kong," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 36-50, April.
    14. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40037, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    16. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2007. "Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(14).
    17. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2014. "Integration of biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the economic effects of climate change on agriculture: A review of global and EU regional approaches," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. Vitezslav Pisa & Jan Bruha & Vitezslav Pisa, 2011. "Dynamics of the Commodity Prices and Quantities: An Analysis using a Dynamic Multiregional CGE Model," EcoMod2011 2889, EcoMod.
    19. Ruslana Palatnik & Roberto Roson, 2012. "Climate change and agriculture in computable general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies and data needs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 1085-1100, June.
    20. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    21. Uzma Hanif & Shabib Haider Syed & Rafique Ahmad & Kauser Abdullah Malik, 2010. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 771-798.
    22. Zhang, Jian & gan, Jianbang, 2007. "Who will Meet China's Import Demand for Forest Products?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2160, December.
    23. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2014. "An integrated analysis of economywide effects of climate change," WIDER Working Paper Series 106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    24. -, 2009. "Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 3165 edited by Eclac, May.
    25. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Sonia Quiroga & Marta Moneo, 2012. "A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 29-46, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Computable general equilibrium models; Agriculture;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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