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Electric Heating and the Effects of Temperature on Household Electricity Consumption in South Africa

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  • Susanna B. Berkouwer

Abstract

How does temperature affect household energy demand in low-income countries? This paper uses 132,375,282 hourly electricity consumption observations from 5,975 households in South Africa to estimate the causal effects of short-term temperature changes on household electricity consumption. The estimates flexibly identify a constant log-linear temperature response—for every 1ଌ increase in temperature, electricity consumption decreases by 4.1% among temperatures below the heating threshold but increases by 8.1% among temperatures above the cooling threshold. This relationship is driven more strongly by seasonal than hourly temperature changes. Holding all else constant, a 3.25ଌ increase in temperatures would reduce electricity consumption by 1,093.4 kWh (6.2%) per year per household. Widespread use of electric heating due to limited residential gas heating infrastructure likely drives this. These results point to important regional heterogeneity in how temperature increases may affect household energy demand in the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Susanna B. Berkouwer, 2020. "Electric Heating and the Effects of Temperature on Household Electricity Consumption in South Africa," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(4), pages 209-230, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:41:y:2020:i:4:p:209-230
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.4.sber
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short And Long Run Impacts Of Climate Change On Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Using Big Data," NBER Working Papers 24397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shi, Tie & Chen, Hanyi & Liu, Yanzhen, 2025. "Extreme temperatures and residential electricity reliability in China," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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    4. Shi, Tie & Chen, Hanyi & Xu, Junbing & Wang, Xuebin, 2025. "The effect of temperatures on household electricity consumption in northern China: Evidence from smart meters," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Ye, Yuxiang & Koch, Steven F. & Ye, Xianming, 2025. "The effect of temperature on household hourly electricity consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).

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