How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?
Over the next 25 to 30 years, nearly all of the growth in energy demand, fossil fuel use, associated local pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions is forecast to come from the developing world. This paper argues that the world's poor and near-poor will play a major role in driving medium-run growth in energy consumption. As the world economy expands and poor households' incomes rise, they are likely to get connected to the electricity grid, gain access to good roads, and purchase energy-using assets like appliances and vehicles for the first time. We argue that the current forecasts for energy demand in the developing world may be understated because they do not accurately capture growth in demand along the extensive margin, as low-income households buy their first durable appliances and vehicles. Within a country, the adoption of energy-using assets typically follows an S-shaped pattern: among the very poor, we see little increase in the number of households owning refrigerators, vehicles, air conditioners, and other assets as incomes go up; above a first threshold income level, we see rapid increases of ownership with income; and above a second threshold, increases in ownership level off. A large share of the world's population has yet to go through the first transition, suggesting there is likely to be a large increase in the demand for energy in the coming years.
Volume (Year): 26 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/jep/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joseph Aldy, 2006.
"Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?,"
Environmental & Resource Economics,
European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, 04.
- Aldy, Joseph, 2005. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Discussion Papers dp-05-53, Resources For the Future.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006.
"The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004,"
IMF Working Papers
06/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993.
"Occupational Choice and the Process of Development,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-98, April.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Discussion Papers 911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- de Mel, Suresh & McKenzie, David & Woodruff, Christopher, 2007.
"Returns to capital in microenterprises : evidence from a field experiment,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4230, The World Bank.
- Suresh de Mel & David McKenzie & Christopher Woodruff, 2008. "Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1329-1372, November.
- de Mel, Suresh & McKenzie, David & Woodruff, Christopher, 2007. "Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2934, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Shaun McRae, 2009. "Infrastructure Quality and the Subsidy Trap," Discussion Papers 09-017, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, revised Nov 2009.
- Barham, Tania & Lipscomb, Molly & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2011. "Development Effects of Electrification: Evidence from the Geologic Placement of Hydropower Plants in Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8427, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karen Fisher-Vanden & Erin T. Mansur & Qiong (Juliana) Wang, 2012. "Costly Blackouts? Measuring Productivity and Environmental Effects of Electricity Shortages," NBER Working Papers 17741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco R Barassi & Matthew A Cole & Robert J R Elliott, 2010.
"The Stochastic Convergence of CO2 Emissions: A Long Memory Approach,"
10-32, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2011. "The Stochastic Convergence of CO 2 Emissions: A Long Memory Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 367-385, July.
- Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1998. "Self-Employment and Wealth Inequality," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(1), pages 25-42, March.
- Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & McNeil, Michael & Zheng, Nina & Letschert, Virginie & Ke, Jing & Saheb, Yamina, 2011. "Analysis of potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction of home appliances and commercial equipments in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4541-4550, August.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
- Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
- Taryn Dinkelman, 2011. "The Effects of Rural Electrification on Employment: New Evidence from South Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3078-3108, December.
- Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2007.
"China's (uneven) progress against poverty,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-42, January.
- Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:26:y:2012:i:1:p:119-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)or (Michael P. Albert)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.