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Climate change and electricity consumption--Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?


  • Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina
  • Aatola, Piia
  • Ollikainen, Markku
  • Tuomenvirta, Heikki


Climate change affects the need for heating and cooling. This paper examines the impact of gradually warming climate on the need for heating and cooling with an econometric multivariate regression model for five countries in Europe along the south-north line. The predicted changes in electricity demand are then used to analyze how climate change impacts the cost of electricity use, including carbon costs. Our main findings are, that in Central and North Europe, the decrease in heating due to climate warming, dominates and thus costs will decrease for both users of electricity and in carbon markets. In Southern Europe climate warming, and the consequential increase in cooling and electricity demand, overcomes the decreased need for heating. Therefore costs also increase. The main contributors are the role of electricity in heating and cooling, and the climatic zone.

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  • Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina & Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Tuomenvirta, Heikki, 2010. "Climate change and electricity consumption--Witnessing increasing or decreasing use and costs?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2409-2419, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:2409-2419

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    3. Tung, Ching-Pin & Tseng, Tze-Chi & Huang, An-Lei & Liu, Tzu-Ming & Hu, Ming-Che, 2013. "Impact of climate change on Taiwanese power market determined using linear complementarity model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 432-439.
    4. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2012. "Conditional dynamic forecast of electrical energy consumption requirements in Ghana by 2020: A comparison of ARDL and PAM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 367-380.
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    7. Bašta, Milan & Helman, Karel, 2013. "Scale-specific importance of weather variables for explanation of variations of electricity consumption: The case of Prague, Czech Republic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 503-514.
    8. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. You, Siming & Neoh, Koon Gee & Tong, Yen Wah & Dai, Yanjun & Wang, Chi-Hwa, 2017. "Variation of household electricity consumption and potential impact of outdoor PM2.5 concentration: A comparison between Singapore and Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 475-484.
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    11. repec:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:3288-3305 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Silvana Mima & Patrick Criqui, 2015. "The Costs of Climate Change for the European Energy System, an Assessment with the POLES Model," Post-Print hal-01149610, HAL.
    13. Trotter, Ian M. & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Féres, José Gustavo & Hollanda, Lavinia, 2016. "Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: A stochastic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 596-604.
    14. Jovanović, Saša & Savić, Slobodan & Bojić, Milorad & Djordjević, Zorica & Nikolić, Danijela, 2015. "The impact of the mean daily air temperature change on electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 604-609.
    15. Karmellos, M. & Kopidou, D. & Diakoulaki, D., 2016. "A decomposition analysis of the driving factors of CO2 (Carbon dioxide) emissions from the power sector in the European Union countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 680-692.
    16. Zhu, Dan & Tao, Shu & Wang, Rong & Shen, Huizhong & Huang, Ye & Shen, Guofeng & Wang, Bin & Li, Wei & Zhang, Yanyan & Chen, Han & Chen, Yuanchen & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Wenx, 2013. "Temporal and spatial trends of residential energy consumption and air pollutant emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 17-24.
    17. Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "The impact of renewable energy on electricity prices in the Netherlands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 94-100.
    18. Jane Ebinger & Walter Vergara, 2011. "Climate Impacts on Energy Systems : Key Issues for Energy Sector Adaptation," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2271.
    19. Fazeli, Reza & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Hallgrimsson, Jonas Hlynur, 2016. "Residential energy demand for space heating in the Nordic countries: Accounting for interfuel substitution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1210-1226.
    20. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    21. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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