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The role of international drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon society

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  • NEIL STRACHAN
  • STEPHEN PYE
  • NICHOLAS HUGHES

Abstract

An integrated set of low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios for the UK were analysed using the UK MARKAL Macro (M-M) model. A $100/tCO 2 carbon price scenario was compared with long-term LCS scenarios with a domestic 80% CO 2 reduction target. As M-M is a national-level model, a set of five international drivers were investigated, and grouped under Annex I consensus and Global consensus assumption sets. For economy-wide results the inclusion of international aviation and potential large-scale purchases of CO 2 permits (when available) are most important. For sectoral implications, all international drivers considered here are important; for example in divergent overall size and configuration of the UK electricity sector. The carbon price scenario and set of 80% LCS targets scenarios give GDP losses rising from 0.36% to a range of 1.64-2.21% in 2050. This steep cost convexity in deep CO 2 reductions represents increasing efforts to decarbonize the UK energy system, and the further impact of key international drivers. This illustrative analysis demonstrates that UK policy makers should be cognisant of, and flexible with respect to, international strategies on LCS and emission reduction targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Strachan & Stephen Pye & Nicholas Hughes, 2008. "The role of international drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon society," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 125-139, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:8:y:2008:i:sup1:p:s125-s139
    DOI: 10.3763/cpol.2007.0489
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    2. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2013. "An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 811-821.
    3. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    4. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    5. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric & Monogan, James E., 2014. "Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 654-666.
    6. Wen, Zong-guo & Di, Jing-han & Yu, Xue-wei & Zhang, Xuan, 2017. "Analyses of CO2 mitigation roadmap in China’s power industry: Using a Backcasting Model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 644-653.
    7. Strachan, Neil, 2011. "Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 153-160, March.
    8. Jablonski, Sophie & Strachan, Neil & Brand, Christian & Bauen, Ausilio, 2010. "The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5799-5816, October.
    9. Strand, Jon & Miller, Sebastian & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2014. "Long-run carbon emission implications of energy-intensive infrastructure investments with a retrofit option," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 308-317.
    10. Steve Pye & Christophe McGlade & Chris Bataille & Gabrial Anandarajah & Amandine Denis-Ryan & Vladimir Potashnikov, 2016. "Exploring national decarbonization pathways and global energy trade flows: a multi-scale analysis," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 92-109, June.

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