IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v73y2014icp654-666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Wakiyama, Takako
  • Zusman, Eric
  • Monogan, James E.

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear crisis, Japan began contemplating energy policy reforms that drew inspiration from low-carbon research. This article focuses on a question central to advancing low-carbon research in Japan and elsewhere: namely, how does an exogenous shock affect the onset, magnitude, and permanence of changes in electricity consumption? The article employs intervention analysis with an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to answer this question. The data analysis reveals that post-Fukushima electricity use underwent a sudden, significant, and sustained reduction across Japan. The shock not only affected the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) coverage area but the more distant Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) coverage area. Large electricity users responded with an immediate and significant reduction in electricity consumption that rebounded to below pre-crisis levels; households responded more gradually with no rebound. Two of the more interesting results from the data analysis – the persistence in reductions in the more distant KEPCO coverage area and the rebound among large users – are then explained with a review of survey data and policy trends. Overall the quantitative and qualitative evidence suggests that an exogenous shock may give rise to a reduction in electricity consumption but cannot sustain a low-carbon transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric & Monogan, James E., 2014. "Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 654-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:654-666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514003899
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Strachan & Stephen Pye & Nicholas Hughes, 2008. "The role of international drivers on UK scenarios of a low-carbon society," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 125-139, December.
    2. Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil & Gross, Robert, 2013. "The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-54.
    3. Jean Charles Hourcade & R. Crassous, 2008. "Low-carbon societies: A challenging transition for an attractive future," Post-Print hal-00719257, HAL.
    4. Witt, Ulrich, 1992. "The Endogenous Public Choice Theorist," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 117-129, January.
    5. Konnola, Totti & Unruh, Gregory C. & Carrillo-Hermosilla, Javier, 2006. "Prospective voluntary agreements for escaping techno-institutional lock-in," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 239-252, May.
    6. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    7. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    8. Sine, Wesley D. & David, Robert J., 2003. "Environmental jolts, institutional change, and the creation of entrepreneurial opportunity in the US electric power industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 185-207, February.
    9. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Renaud Crassous, 2008. "Low-carbon societies: a challenging transition for an attractive future," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-612, November.
    10. Jim Skea & Shuzo Nishioka, 2008. "Policies and practices for a low-carbon society," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 5-16, December.
    11. Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The policy responses to the Fukushima nuclear accident and their effect on Japanese energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 86-101.
    12. Neil Strachan & Tim Foxon & Junichi Fujino, 2008. "Low-Carbon Society (LCS) modelling," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 3-4, December.
    13. Neil Strachan & Tim Foxon & Junichi Fujino, 2008. "Policy implications from the Low-Carbon Society (LCS) modelling project," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 17-29, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Manuel, 2015. "Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 520-528.
    2. Wakiyama, Takako & Kuramochi, Takeshi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Tahseen, Samiha & Karney, Bryan W., 2017. "Reviewing and critiquing published approaches to the sustainability assessment of hydropower," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-234.
    4. Zolfagharian, Mohammadreza & Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob & Romme, A. Georges L., 2019. "Studying transitions: Past, present, and future," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    2. Mohammed, Sayeed & Desha, Cheryl & Goonetilleke, Ashantha, 2022. "Investigating low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Economic transition in Qatar," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Bale, Catherine S.E. & Varga, Liz & Foxon, Timothy J., 2015. "Energy and complexity: New ways forward," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 150-159.
    4. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    5. Strand, Jon & Miller, Sebastian & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2014. "Long-run carbon emission implications of energy-intensive infrastructure investments with a retrofit option," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 308-317.
    6. Hellsmark, Hans & Hansen, Teis, 2020. "A new dawn for (oil) incumbents within the bioeconomy? Trade-offs and lessons for policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Nill, Jan & Kemp, Ren, 2009. "Evolutionary approaches for sustainable innovation policies: From niche to paradigm?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 668-680, May.
    8. Anna Davies & Niamh Kirwan, 2010. "Rescaling climate justice: sub-national issues and innovations for low carbon futures," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp340, IIIS.
    9. Foxon, Timothy J. & Pearson, Peter J.G. & Arapostathis, Stathis & Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna & Thornton, Judith, 2013. "Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 146-158.
    10. Lin, Weiming & Chen, Jianling & Zheng, Yi & Dai, Yongwu, 2019. "Effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme on the international competitiveness of pulp-and-paper industry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Moradi, Afsaneh & Vagnoni, Emidia, 2018. "A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-243.
    12. Ottmar Edenhofer & Susanne Kadner & Christoph von Stechow & Gregor Schwerhoff & Gunnar Luderer, 2014. "Linking climate change mitigation research to sustainable development," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 30, pages 476-499, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2009. "The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866429, HAL.
    14. Kejia Yang & Johan Schot & Bernhard Truffer, 2020. "Shaping the Directionality of Sustainability Transitions: The Diverging Development Patterns of Solar PV in Two Chinese Provinces," SPRU Working Paper Series 2020-14, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2016. "The history and politics of energy transitions: Comparing contested views and finding common ground," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Simon Shackley & Michael Thompson, 2012. "Lost in the mix: will the technologies of carbon dioxide capture and storage provide us with a breathing space as we strive to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewables?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 101-121, January.
    17. Barton, John & Davies, Lloyd & Dooley, Ben & Foxon, Timothy J. & Galloway, Stuart & Hammond, Geoffrey P. & O’Grady, Áine & Robertson, Elizabeth & Thomson, Murray, 2018. "Transition pathways for a UK low-carbon electricity system: Comparing scenarios and technology implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2779-2790.
    18. Sorrell, Steve, 2015. "Reducing energy demand: A review of issues, challenges and approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 74-82.
    19. Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "The costs of climate policies in a second-best world with labour market imperfections," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 768-788, January.
    20. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:654-666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.