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On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach

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  • Fehrenbach, Daniel
  • Merkel, Erik
  • McKenna, Russell
  • Karl, Ute
  • Fichtner, Wolf

Abstract

Against the background of the ambitious German targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, this paper investigates the economic potential for thermal load management with virtual power plants consisting of micro-cogeneration plants, heat pumps and thermal storage within the residential sector. An optimising energy system model of the electricity and residential heat supply in Germany is developed in the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) modelling framework and used to determine capacity developments and dispatch of electricity and residential heat generation technologies until 2050. The analysed scenarios differ with respect to the rate of technological development of heat and power devices, fuel and CO2 prices as well as renewable electricity expansion. Results show that high fuel prices and a high renewable electricity expansion favour heat pumps and insulation measures over micro-cogeneration, whereas lower fuel prices and lower renewable electricity expansion relatively favour the expansion of micro-cogeneration. In the former case heat pump capacities increase to around 67 GWel, whereas in the latter case the total capacity of micro-cogeneration reaches 8 GWel. With the aid of thermal storage, this provides considerable flexibility for electrical load shifting through heat pumps and electricity generation from micro-cogeneration in residential applications, needed for the integration of fluctuating renewable electricity technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:71:y:2014:i:c:p:263-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.04.061
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    2. Katz, Jonas & Andersen, Frits Møller & Morthorst, Poul Erik, 2016. "Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1602-1616.
    3. Miguel Gonzalez-Salazar & Thomas Langrock & Christoph Koch & Jana Spieß & Alexander Noack & Markus Witt & Michael Ritzau & Armin Michels, 2020. "Evaluation of Energy Transition Pathways to Phase out Coal for District Heating in Berlin," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Haghi, Ehsan & Qadrdan, Meysam & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick & Fowler, Michael & Raahemifar, Kaamran, 2020. "An iterative approach for optimal decarbonization of electricity and heat supply systems in the Great Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    5. Boßmann, Tobias & Eser, Eike Johannes, 2016. "Model-based assessment of demand-response measures—A comprehensive literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1637-1656.
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    7. Ehrlich, Lars G. & Klamka, Jonas & Wolf, André, 2015. "The potential of decentralized power-to-heat as a flexibility option for the german electricity system: A microeconomic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 417-428.
    8. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    9. Hansen, Kenneth & Connolly, David & Lund, Henrik & Drysdale, David & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck, 2016. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying the balance between saving heat and supplying heat," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1663-1671.
    10. Kirchem, Dana & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Bertsch, Valentin & Casey, Eoin, 2020. "Modelling demand response with process models and energy systems models: Potential applications for wastewater treatment within the energy-water nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    11. Pinrolinvic D. K. Manembu & Angreine Kewo & Rasmus Bramstoft & Per Sieverts Nielsen, 2023. "A Systematicity Review on Residential Electricity Load-Shifting at the Appliance Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hirth, Lion & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Bahl, Björn & Lampe, Matthias & Voll, Philip & Bardow, André, 2017. "Optimization-based identification and quantification of demand-side management potential for distributed energy supply systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 889-899.
    14. Kirchem, Dana & Lynch, Muireann Á & Casey, Eoin & Bertsch, Valentin, 2019. "Demand response within the energy-for-water-nexus: A review," Papers WP637, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Armstrong, P. & Ager, D. & Thompson, I. & McCulloch, M., 2014. "Improving the energy storage capability of hot water tanks through wall material specification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 128-140.
    16. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    17. Ambrosius, Mirjam & Grimm, Veronika & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2018. "Investment incentives for flexible demand options under different market designs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 372-389.
    18. McKenna, Russell & Merkel, Erik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "Energy autonomy in residential buildings: A techno-economic model-based analysis of the scale effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 800-815.
    19. Merkel, Erik & Fehrenbach, Daniel & McKenna, Russell & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "Modelling decentralised heat supply: An application and methodological extension in TIMES," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 592-605.
    20. Bjoern Felten & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Modeling the Value of Flexible Heat Pumps," EWL Working Papers 1709, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
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