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Individual decisions and system development – Integrating modelling approaches for the heating market

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  • Bauermann, Klaas
  • Spiecker, Stephan
  • Weber, Christoph

Abstract

Improvements in the building stock insulation and the replacement of heating systems will have to take place within the next decades in order to lower heat demand and the associated carbon emissions of the building sector. The current study presents an integrated, iterative modelling approach to determine the development of the heating market. A system model captures the fundamental influencing factors on the investment decision while a logistic decision model describes in detail the building owners’ behaviour, taking into account the heterogeneous building stock and possible non-economic factors influencing heating system choice. In the application case, the potentials for different heating technologies are investigated under three different economic scenarios for the German heating market until 2050. The heating market with house owners as the main actors is relatively sluggish, thus political targets are likely to fail. The impact of the heat pump induced electricity demand on the power market remains low. In order to achieve the ambitious heating market targets in Germany further efforts are necessary. In particular the potentials of the existing building stock need to be taped more efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Bauermann, Klaas & Spiecker, Stephan & Weber, Christoph, 2014. "Individual decisions and system development – Integrating modelling approaches for the heating market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 149-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:116:y:2014:i:c:p:149-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.11.046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bloess, Andreas, 2019. "Impacts of heat sector transformation on Germany’s power system through increased use of power-to-heat," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 560-580.
    2. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2019. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 615-627.
    3. Haghi, Ehsan & Qadrdan, Meysam & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick & Fowler, Michael & Raahemifar, Kaamran, 2020. "An iterative approach for optimal decarbonization of electricity and heat supply systems in the Great Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    4. Dodds, Paul E., 2014. "Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 358-369.
    5. Henze, Gregor P. & Pavlak, Gregory S. & Florita, Anthony R. & Dodier, Robert H. & Hirsch, Adam I., 2015. "An energy signal tool for decision support in building energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 51-70.
    6. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    7. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.
    8. Wilson, C. & Pettifor, H. & Chryssochoidis, G., 2018. "Quantitative modelling of why and how homeowners decide to renovate energy efficiently," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1333-1344.
    9. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    10. Bloess, Andreas & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2018. "Power-to-heat for renewable energy integration: A review of technologies, modeling approaches, and flexibility potentials," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1611-1626.
    11. Bauermann, Klaas, 2016. "German Energiewende and the heating market – Impact and limits of policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 235-246.
    12. Bjoern Felten & Jessica Raasch & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Photovoltaics and Heat Pumps - Limitations of Local Pricing Mechanisms," EWL Working Papers 1702, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    13. Heiskanen, Eva & Matschoss, Kaisa, 2017. "Understanding the uneven diffusion of building-scale renewable energy systems: A review of household, local and country level factors in diverse European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 580-591.
    14. Felten, Björn & Weber, Christoph, 2018. "The value(s) of flexible heat pumps – Assessment of technical and economic conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1292-1319.

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