IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v57y2013icp443-457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)

Author

Listed:
  • Gracceva, Francesco
  • Zeniewski, Peter

Abstract

This paper aims to quantitatively explore the uncertainty around the global potential of shale gas development and its possible impacts, using a multi-regional energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). Starting from the premise that shale gas resource size and production cost are two key preconditions for its development, our scenario analysis reveals the way these and other variables interact with the global energy system, impacting on the regional distribution of gas production, interregional gas trade, demand and prices. The analysis shows how the reciprocal effects of substitutions on both the supply and demand-side play an important role in constraining or enabling the penetration of shale gas into the energy mix. Moreover, we systematically demonstrate that the global potential for shale gas development is contingent on a large number of intervening variables that manifest themselves in different ways across regionally-distinct energy systems. A simple theoretical model is derived from the results of the scenario analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2013. "Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 443-457.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:443-457
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213005045
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle & Osmundsen, Petter, 2012. "Gas versus oil prices the impact of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 117-124.
    2. Densing, Martin & Turton, Hal & Bäuml, Georg, 2012. "Conditions for the successful deployment of electric vehicles – A global energy system perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 137-149.
    3. McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Unconventional gas – A review of regional and global resource estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 571-584.
    4. Lior, Noam, 2012. "Sustainable energy development (May 2011) with some game-changers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-18.
    5. Howard Rogers, 2011. "Shale gas--the unfolding story," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 117-143, Spring.
    6. Labriet, Maryse & Kanudia, Amit & Loulou, Richard, 2012. "Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 366-377.
    7. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    8. Gül, Timur & Kypreos, Socrates & Turton, Hal & Barreto, Leonardo, 2009. "An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1423-1437.
    9. Føyn, T. Helene Ystanes & Karlsson, Kenneth & Balyk, Olexandr & Grohnheit, Poul Erik, 2011. "A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 526-534, February.
    10. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    2. Scott, Michael J. & Daly, Don S. & Hathaway, John E. & Lansing, Carina S. & Liu, Ying & McJeon, Haewon C. & Moss, Richard H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Peterson, Marty J. & Rice, Jennie S. & Zhou, Yuyu, 2015. "Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1682-1694.
    3. repec:eee:energy:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:142-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:201:y:2017:i:c:p:219-239 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    6. repec:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:1563-1572 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:energy:v:166:y:2019:i:c:p:1063-1073 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sheridan Few & Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Stephane Mangeon & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Duan, Hong-Bo & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Optimal carbon taxes in carbon-constrained China: A logistic-induced energy economic hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 345-356.
    10. repec:eee:appene:v:205:y:2017:i:c:p:769-780 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fan, Tie-gang & Zhang, Guang-qing, 2014. "Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracture networks in formations with continuous orthogonal fractures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 164-173.
    12. Fehrenbach, Daniel & Merkel, Erik & McKenna, Russell & Karl, Ute & Fichtner, Wolf, 2014. "On the economic potential for electric load management in the German residential heating sector – An optimising energy system model approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    13. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    14. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:164-:d:126802 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.
    16. Tunstall, Thomas, 2015. "Iterative Bass Model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 580-588.
    17. Baležentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2017. "Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 862-871.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:443-457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.