IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02061459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Hache

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques)

  • Gondia Sokhna Seck

    () (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Marine Simoen

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Clement Bonnet

    () (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Samuel Carcanague

    (IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques)

Abstract

Integrated assessment models are generally not constrained by raw materials supply. In this article, the interactions between a wide diffusion of electric vehicles in the world transportation sector and the lithium supply are analysed in the Times Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-IFPEN version). The lithium sector and a detailed representation of the transportation sector have been then implemented into the TIAM-IFPEN processes constituting the global energy system. Hence, the availability of this strategic material to supply the growing demand for low-carbon technologies in the context of the energy transition can be questioned. Incorporating an endogenous representation of the lithium supply chain allows investigating its dynamic criticality depending on several optimal technology paths that represent different climate and/or mobility scenarios between 2005 and 2050. It is the first detailed global bottom-up energy model with an endogenous disaggregated raw materials supply chain. Based on our simulations, the geological, geopolitical and economic dimensions of criticality are discussed. Four scenarios have been run: two climate scenarios (4°C and 2°C) with two shapes of mobility each: a high mobility where we consider the impact of urban dispersal with a huge car dependence/usage, and a low mobility in which the demand for individual road transport is lower due to a more sustainable urban planning and more public transport. The electric vehicles fleet should reach up to 1/3 of global fleet by 2050 in the 4°C scenarios, while it could be up to 3/4 in the 2°C scenarios both with high mobility, mostly located in Asian countries (China, India and other developing countries in Asia) due to the large presence of 2 and 3-wheelers. The penetration of electric vehicles has a major impact on lithium market. The cumulated demand over the period 2005-2050 reaches up to 53% of the current resources in the 2°C scenario with a high mobility. These results tend to show an absence of geological criticality. Nevertheless, they have clearly highlighted other different forms of vulnerabilities, whether economic, industrial, geopolitical or environmental. A discussion about the future risk factors on the lithium market is done at a regional scale aiming at analysing more in-depth the impact of the electric vehicle on lithium market. Our study of this particular strategic material shows that the model could be a useful decision-making tool for assessing future raw material market in the context of the energy transition and could be extended to other critical raw materials for more efficient regional and sectorial screening.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Hache & Gondia Sokhna Seck & Marine Simoen & Clement Bonnet & Samuel Carcanague, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Post-Print hal-02061459, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02061459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.02.057
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-ifp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02061459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-ifp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02061459/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ugo Bardi, 2010. "Extracting Minerals from Seawater: An Energy Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Glachant, Matthieu & Ménière, Yann, 2008. "The Clean Development Mechanism and the international diffusion of technologies: An empirical study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1273-1283, April.
    3. T. E. Graedel & Barbara K. Reck, 2016. "Six Years of Criticality Assessments: What Have We Learned So Far?," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(4), pages 692-699, August.
    4. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    5. Speirs, Jamie & Contestabile, Marcello & Houari, Yassine & Gross, Robert, 2014. "The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-193.
    6. Li, Lin & Dababneh, Fadwa & Zhao, Jing, 2018. "Cost-effective supply chain for electric vehicle battery remanufacturing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 277-286.
    7. Zeng, Xianlai & Li, Jinhui & Liu, Lili, 2015. "Solving spent lithium-ion battery problems in China: Opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1759-1767.
    8. Moss, R.L. & Tzimas, E. & Kara, H. & Willis, P. & Kooroshy, J., 2013. "The potential risks from metals bottlenecks to the deployment of Strategic Energy Technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 556-564.
    9. Roelich, Katy & Dawson, David A. & Purnell, Phil & Knoeri, Christof & Revell, Ruairi & Busch, Jonathan & Steinberger, Julia K., 2014. "Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 378-386.
    10. N.T. Nassar & Xiaoyue Du & T.E. Graedel, 2015. "Criticality of the Rare Earth Elements," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(6), pages 1044-1054, December.
    11. Helbig, Christoph & Wietschel, Lars & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "How to evaluate raw material vulnerability - An overview," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-24.
    12. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2017. "Material flow analysis of lithium in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 100-106.
    13. Emmanuel Hache, 2018. "Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 127-135.
    14. Yaksic, Andrés & Tilton, John E., 2009. "Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 185-194, December.
    15. Richard Loulou, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. part II: mathematical formulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 41-66, February.
    16. Miedema, Jan H. & Moll, Henri C., 2013. "Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 204-211.
    17. Grosjean, Camille & Miranda, Pamela Herrera & Perrin, Marion & Poggi, Philippe, 2012. "Assessment of world lithium resources and consequences of their geographic distribution on the expected development of the electric vehicle industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1735-1744.
    18. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Labriet, Maryse & Loulou, Richard & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2296-2307, July.
    19. Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
    20. Achzet, Benjamin & Helbig, Christoph, 2013. "How to evaluate raw material supply risks—an overview," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 435-447.
    21. Viebahn, Peter & Soukup, Ole & Samadi, Sascha & Teubler, Jens & Wiesen, Klaus & Ritthoff, Michael, 2015. "Assessing the need for critical minerals to shift the German energy system towards a high proportion of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 655-671.
    22. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2013. "Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development – A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 443-457.
    23. Golev, Artem & Scott, Margaretha & Erskine, Peter D. & Ali, Saleem H. & Ballantyne, Grant R., 2014. "Rare earths supply chains: Current status, constraints and opportunities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 52-59.
    24. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia, 2014. "Achieving negative emissions with BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in the power sector: New insights from the TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model France) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 967-975.
    25. van der Zwaan, Bob & Keppo, Ilkka & Johnsson, Filip, 2013. "How to decarbonize the transport sector?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 562-573.
    26. Bach, Vanessa & Finogenova, Natalia & Berger, Markus & Winter, Lisa & Finkbeiner, Matthias, 2017. "Enhancing the assessment of critical resource use at the country level with the SCARCE method – Case study of Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 283-299.
    27. Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
    28. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2014. "Clean energy industries and rare earth materials: Economic and financial issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-61.
    29. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    30. E. M. Harper & Goksin Kavlak & Lara Burmeister & Matthew J. Eckelman & Serkan Erbis & Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Philip Nuss & T. E. Graedel, 2015. "Criticality of the Geological Zinc, Tin, and Lead Family," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(4), pages 628-644, August.
    31. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
    32. Hatayama, Hiroki & Tahara, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Adopting an objective approach to criticality assessment: Learning from the past," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hache, Emmanuel & Simoën, Marine & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Bonnet, Clément & Jabberi, Aymen & Carcanague, Samuel, 2020. "The impact of future power generation on cement demand: An international and regional assessment based on climate scenarios," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 114-133.
    2. Mauler, Lukas & Duffner, Fabian & Leker, Jens, 2021. "Economies of scale in battery cell manufacturing: The impact of material and process innovations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    3. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2020. "Long-term analysis of critical materials in future vehicles electrification in China and their national and global implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N. & Won, Hyun-Woo & Li, Yang & Sarathy, S. Mani & Xie, Xiaomin & Amer, Amer A., 2020. "Bridging the gap in a resource and climate-constrained world with advanced gasoline compression-ignition hybrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    5. Clément Bonnet & Samuel Carcanague & Emmanuel Hache & Gondia Sokhna Seck & Marine Simoën, 2019. "Some Geopolitical issues of the Energy Transition," Working Papers hal-03191388, HAL.
    6. Jones, Ben & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Nguyen-Tien, Viet, 2020. "The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    7. Vakulchuk, Roman & Overland, Indra & Scholten, Daniel, 2020. "Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Junne, Tobias & Wulff, Niklas & Breyer, Christian & Naegler, Tobias, 2020. "Critical materials in global low-carbon energy scenarios: The case for neodymium, dysprosium, lithium, and cobalt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dewulf, Jo & Blengini, Gian Andrea & Pennington, David & Nuss, Philip & Nassar, Nedal T., 2016. "Criticality on the international scene: Quo vadis?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-176.
    2. Helbig, Christoph & Bradshaw, Alex M. & Kolotzek, Christoph & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "Supply risks associated with CdTe and CIGS thin-film photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 422-433.
    3. Griffin, Gillian & Gaustad, Gabrielle & Badami, Kedar, 2019. "A framework for firm-level critical material supply management and mitigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 262-276.
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Monge, Manuel, 2019. "Lithium: Production and estimated consumption. Evidence of persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 198-202.
    5. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2019. "Automobile components: Lithium and cobalt. Evidence of persistence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 489-495.
    6. Shigetomi, Yosuke & Nansai, Keisuke & Kagawa, Shigemi & Kondo, Yasushi & Tohno, Susumu, 2017. "Economic and social determinants of global physical flows of critical metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 107-113.
    7. Kim, Juhan & Lee, Jungbae & Kim, BumChoong & Kim, Jinsoo, 2019. "Raw material criticality assessment with weighted indicators: An application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 225-233.
    8. Daw, Georges, 2017. "Security of mineral resources: A new framework for quantitative assessment of criticality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 173-189.
    9. Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2018. "Resource implications of alternative strategies for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2060," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 663-679.
    10. Lapko, Yulia & Trucco, Paolo & Nuur, Cali, 2016. "The business perspective on materials criticality: Evidence from manufacturers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 93-107.
    11. Blengini, Gian Andrea & Nuss, Philip & Dewulf, Jo & Nita, Viorel & Peirò, Laura Talens & Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz & Latunussa, Cynthia & Mancini, Lucia & Blagoeva, Darina & Pennington, David & Pellegrini,, 2017. "EU methodology for critical raw materials assessment: Policy needs and proposed solutions for incremental improvements," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-19.
    12. Zhang, Kuangyuan & Kleit, Andrew N. & Nieto, Antonio, 2017. "An economics strategy for criticality – Application to rare earth element Yttrium in new lighting technology and its sustainable availability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 899-915.
    13. Yu, Shiwei & Duan, Haoran & Cheng, Jinhua, 2021. "An evaluation of the supply risk for China's strategic metallic mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Lapko, Yulia & Trucco, Paolo, 2018. "Influence of power regimes on identification and mitigation of material criticality: The case of platinum group metals in the automotive sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-370.
    15. Tokimatsu, Koji & Höök, Mikael & McLellan, Benjamin & Wachtmeister, Henrik & Murakami, Shinsuke & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2018. "Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1158-1175.
    16. Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio & Calvo, Guiomar & Ortego, Abel, 2018. "Material bottlenecks in the future development of green technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-200.
    17. Schmid, Marc, 2019. "Mitigating supply risks through involvement in rare earth projects: Japan's strategies and what the US can learn," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Glöser, Simon & Tercero Espinoza, Luis & Gandenberger, Carsten & Faulstich, Martin, 2015. "Raw material criticality in the context of classical risk assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-46.
    19. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    20. Schnebele, Emily & Jaiswal, Kishor & Luco, Nicolas & Nassar, Nedal T., 2019. "Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    World transportation; Electrification; Critical raw materials; Lithium; Bottom-up modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02061459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.