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Copper at the crossroads : Assessment of the interactions between low-carbon energy transition and supply limitations

Author

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  • Gondia Sokhna Seck

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clement Bonnet

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Marine Simoën

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Samuel Carcanague

    (IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques)

Abstract

This article aims to assess the impact of copper availability on the energy transition and to determine whether copper could become critical due to the high copper content of low-carbon technologies compared to conventional technologies. In assessing copper availability through to 2050, we rely on our linear programming world energy-transport model, TIAM-IFPEN. We examine two climate scenarios (2 °C and 4 °C) with two mobility shape, implemented with a recycling chain. The penetration of low-carbon technologies in the transport and energy sectors (electric vehicles and low-carbon power generation technologies) is likely to significantly increase copper demand by 2050. To investigate how tension over copper resources can be reduced in the energy transition context, we consider two public policy drivers: sustainable mobility and recycling practices. Results show that in the most stringent scenario, the cumulative primary copper demand between 2010 and 2050 is found to be 89.4% of the copper resources known in 2010. They also pinpoint the importance of China and Chile in the future evolution of the copper market.

Suggested Citation

  • Gondia Sokhna Seck & Emmanuel Hache & Clement Bonnet & Marine Simoën & Samuel Carcanague, 2020. "Copper at the crossroads : Assessment of the interactions between low-carbon energy transition and supply limitations," Post-Print hal-03118509, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03118509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105072
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03118509
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiaying Peng & Yuhang Zheng & Ke Mao, 2021. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Extreme Climate Risks on Global Energy Consumption Transition: An International Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Chazel, Simon & Bernard, Sophie & Benchekroun, Hassan, 2023. "Energy transition under mineral constraints and recycling: A low-carbon supply peak," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Kamila Svobodova & John R. Owen & Deanna Kemp & Vítězslav Moudrý & Éléonore Lèbre & Martin Stringer & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2022. "Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Pommeret, Aude & Ricci, Francesco & Schubert, Katheline, 2022. "Critical raw materials for the energy transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Antoine Bouët & Erica Perego & Vincent Vicard & Mathieu Fouquet & Alexandre Godzinski & Frédéric Ghersi & Sébastien Jean & William l'Heudé & Vincent Aussilloux & Romain Schweizer & Christophe C. Gouel, 2023. "Les incidences économiques de l'action pour le climat. Compétitivité," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04248556, HAL.
    6. Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Hache, Emmanuel & Barnet, Charlène, 2022. "Potential bottleneck in the energy transition: The case of cobalt in an accelerating electro-mobility world," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Yves Jégourel, 2023. "Des promesses de la transition énergétique à la morosité macroéconomique : le cuivre à la croisée des chemins," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1997, Policy Center for the New South.
    8. Tanguy Bonnet, 2023. "Foreign Direct Investment and Strategic Minerals," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-7, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Hoarau, Quentin & Lorang, Etienne, 2022. "An assessment of the European regulation on battery recycling for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Le Boulzec, Hugo & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Verzier, François & Vidal, Olivier & Mathy, Sandrine, 2022. "Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: Overcoming a lack of available data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    11. Marta Bottero & Federico Dell’Anna & Vito Morgese, 2021. "Evaluating the Transition Towards Post-Carbon Cities: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-28, January.
    12. Seck, Gondia S. & Hache, Emmanuel & Sabathier, Jerome & Guedes, Fernanda & Reigstad, Gunhild A. & Straus, Julian & Wolfgang, Ove & Ouassou, Jabir A. & Askeland, Magnus & Hjorth, Ida & Skjelbred, Hans , 2022. "Hydrogen and the decarbonization of the energy system in europe in 2050: A detailed model-based analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. John Ryter & Xinkai Fu & Karan Bhuwalka & Richard Roth & Elsa Olivetti, 2022. "Assessing recycling, displacement, and environmental impacts using an economics‐informed material system model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1010-1024, June.
    14. Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Pathways to low carbon energy transition through multi criteria assessment of offshore wind energy barriers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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    Keywords

    Copper; Bottom-up modelling; Energy transition; Transport sector; Power sector; Recycling;
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