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Copper demand forecasts and predictions of future scarcity


  • Hunt, C.
  • Romero, J.
  • Jara, J.
  • Lagos, G.


Several studies dealt in the past decades with future predictions of the copper demand, motivated mainly by potential copper shortages that could arise due to insufficient reserves. It is known that there was never a shortage of reserves in order to satisfy demand in the last century and up to the present time. This paper addresses two questions. Did these concerns arise due to excessive demand forecasts, or due to stagnating reserves assumption, or due to both aspects?

Suggested Citation

  • Hunt, C. & Romero, J. & Jara, J. & Lagos, G., 2021. "Copper demand forecasts and predictions of future scarcity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102123

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 367-372, March.
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    4. Franklin M. Fisher & Paul H. Cootner & Martin N. Baily, 1972. "An Econometric Model of the World Copper Industry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 568-609, Autumn.
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    6. Claudia R. Binder & T. E. Graedel & Barbara Reck, 2006. "Explanatory Variables for per Capita Stocks and Flows of Copper and Zinc," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 10(1‐2), pages 111-132, January.
    7. Gordon, R.B. & Bertram, M. & Graedel, T.E., 2007. "On the sustainability of metal supplies: A response to Tilton and Lagos," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 24-28.
    8. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 547(7662), pages 246-246, July.
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