IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04452384.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?

Author

Listed:
  • Pauline Bucciarelli

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the criticality of strategic metals by (i) investigating the validity of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for assessing the supply risk aspect of criticality and (ii) determining an appropriate threshold for using this indicator in the context of criticality studies. Relying on a large panel of 33 strategic metals over the 1995-2021 period, our findings show that the variation of HHI has more impact on metal prices at lower HHI levels and question the existence of a threshold that clearly distinguishes high-risk markets from less risky ones based on their concentration levels. Overall, we show that using the HHI as a supply risk indicator, especially in conjunction with a threshold, may result in underestimating risks in less concentrated markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauline Bucciarelli & Emmanuel Hache & Valérie Mignon, 2024. "Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?," Working Papers hal-04452384, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04452384
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04452384v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04452384v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet Balcilar, David Roubaud, and Muhammad Shahbaz, 2019. "The Impact of Energy Market Uncertainty Shocks on Energy Transition in Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(The New E).
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    4. Glöser, Simon & Tercero Espinoza, Luis & Gandenberger, Carsten & Faulstich, Martin, 2015. "Raw material criticality in the context of classical risk assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 35-46.
    5. Brémond, Vincent & Hache, Emmanuel & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Does OPEC still exist as a cartel? An empirical investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 125-131.
    6. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    8. Peter Buchholz & Arne Schumacher & Siyamend Barazi, 2022. "Big data analyses for real-time tracking of risks in the mineral raw material markets: implications for improved supply chain risk management," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 701-744, December.
    9. Volker Nocke & Michael D. Whinston, 2022. "Concentration Thresholds for Horizontal Mergers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1915-1948, June.
    10. Eskinder D. Gemechu & Christoph Helbig & Guido Sonnemann & Andrea Thorenz & Axel Tuma, 2016. "Import-based Indicator for the Geopolitical Supply Risk of Raw Materials in Life Cycle Sustainability Assessments," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(1), pages 154-165, February.
    11. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
    14. Brown, Teresa, 2018. "Measurement of mineral supply diversity and its importance in assessing risk and criticality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 202-218.
    15. Henckens, M.L.C.M. & van Ierland, E.C. & Driessen, P.P.J. & Worrell, E., 2016. "Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    16. Kumah, Richard, 2022. "Artisanal and small-scale mining formalization challenges in Ghana: Explaining grassroots perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Rosenau-Tornow, Dirk & Buchholz, Peter & Riemann, Axel & Wagner, Markus, 2009. "Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 161-175, December.
    18. Achzet, Benjamin & Helbig, Christoph, 2013. "How to evaluate raw material supply risks—an overview," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 435-447.
    19. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    20. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.
    21. Chen, Ying & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2022. "Spillovers and hedging effectiveness of non-ferrous metals and sub-sectoral clean energy stocks in time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    22. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina‐Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
    23. Stepanek, Christian & Walter, Matthias & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 395-405.
    24. Helbig, Christoph & Wietschel, Lars & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "How to evaluate raw material vulnerability - An overview," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-24.
    25. Christine L. Thomas & Nedal T. Nassar & John H. DeYoung, 2022. "Assessing mineral supply concentration from different perspectives through a case study of zinc," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 607-616, December.
    26. Christoph Helbig & Martin Bruckler & Andrea Thorenz & Axel Tuma, 2021. "An Overview of Indicator Choice and Normalization in Raw Material Supply Risk Assessments," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-26, August.
    27. Depraiter, Lisa & Goutte, Stephane, 2023. "The role and challenges of rare earths in the energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    28. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    29. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    30. Faubert Violaine & Nathan Guess & Julien Le Roux, 2024. "Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Who Owns the Capital of Firms Producing Critical Raw Materials?," Working papers 952, Banque de France.
    31. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4474-4481, November.
    32. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-04126172 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Yousef F. Nazer, 2022. "OPEC and the Oil Market," IMF Working Papers 2022/183, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Gleich, Benedikt & Achzet, Benjamin & Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 350-362.
    35. Hatayama, Hiroki & Tahara, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Adopting an objective approach to criticality assessment: Learning from the past," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Capucine Nobletz, 2024. "Critical Raw Materials Index - CRMI," AMSE Working Papers 2428, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Richard Schmitz & Franziska Flachsbarth & Leonie Sara Plaga & Martin Braun & Philipp Hartel, 2025. "Energy Security and Resilience: Reviewing Concepts and Advancing Planning Perspectives for Transforming Integrated Energy Systems," Papers 2504.18396, arXiv.org.
    3. Feix, Thibaut & Hache, Emmanuel, 2025. "Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential of metals and minerals production: Assessment, projections and mitigation options," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Faubert Violaine & Nathan Guess & Julien Le Roux, 2024. "Capital in the Twenty-First Century: Who Owns the Capital of Firms Producing Critical Raw Materials?," Working papers 952, Banque de France.
    5. Jingxin Nie & Tiantian Li & Tianming Zheng, 2025. "How Does the Scale and Functional Diversity of the Innovation Cooperation Network Affect Local Innovation? Township-Level Evidence from Beijing," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Juhan & Lee, Jungbae & Kim, BumChoong & Kim, Jinsoo, 2019. "Raw material criticality assessment with weighted indicators: An application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 225-233.
    2. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    3. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    4. Shule Li & Jingjing Yan & Qiuming Pei & Jinghua Sha & Siyu Mou & Yong Xiao, 2019. "Risk Identification and Evaluation of the Long-term Supply of Manganese Mines in China Based on the VW-BGR Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Schischke, A. & Papenfuß, P. & Brem, M. & Kurz, P. & Rathgeber, A.W., 2023. "Sustainable energy transition and its demand for scarce resources: Insights into the German Energiewende through a new risk assessment framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Yu, Shiwei & Duan, Haoran & Cheng, Jinhua, 2021. "An evaluation of the supply risk for China's strategic metallic mineral resources," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Christoph Helbig & Martin Bruckler & Andrea Thorenz & Axel Tuma, 2021. "An Overview of Indicator Choice and Normalization in Raw Material Supply Risk Assessments," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-26, August.
    8. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    9. Griffin, Gillian & Gaustad, Gabrielle & Badami, Kedar, 2019. "A framework for firm-level critical material supply management and mitigation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 262-276.
    10. Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Xiangping & Zhu, Yongguang & Su, Hui & Xue, Shuangjiao, 2020. "Synthesized indicator for evaluating security of strategic minerals in China: A case study of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Papenfuß, Patric & Schischke, Amelie & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2025. "Factors of predictive power for metal commodities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Amelie Schischke & Patric Papenfuß & Andreas Rathgeber, 2024. "The three co’s to jointly model commodity markets: co-production, co-consumption and co-trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 883-925, February.
    13. Marie K. Schellens & Johanna Gisladottir, 2018. "Critical Natural Resources: Challenging the Current Discourse and Proposal for a Holistic Definition," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, December.
    14. Bach, Vanessa & Finogenova, Natalia & Berger, Markus & Winter, Lisa & Finkbeiner, Matthias, 2017. "Enhancing the assessment of critical resource use at the country level with the SCARCE method – Case study of Germany," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 283-299.
    15. Hatayama, Hiroki & Tahara, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Adopting an objective approach to criticality assessment: Learning from the past," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-102.
    16. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2023. "What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    17. Daw, Georges, 2025. "Revising the ‘Economic importance’ dimension: The European framework for critical raw materials, completed and illustrated using lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Teixeira, Bernardo & Brito, Miguel Centeno & Mateus, António, 2024. "Raw materials for the Portuguese decarbonization roadmap: The case of solar photovoltaics and wind energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Kühnel, Konstantin & Schütte, Philip & Bach, Vanessa & Franken, Gudrun & Finkbeiner, Matthias, 2023. "Correlation analysis of country governance indicators and the magnitude of environmental and social incidents in mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    20. Helbig, Christoph & Bradshaw, Alex M. & Kolotzek, Christoph & Thorenz, Andrea & Tuma, Axel, 2016. "Supply risks associated with CdTe and CIGS thin-film photovoltaics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 422-433.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic metals; Criticality; Herfindahl–Hirschman Index; Metal prices; Panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04452384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.