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Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?

Author

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  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pauline Bucciarelli

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the criticality of strategic metals by (i) investigating the validity of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for assessing the supply risk aspect of criticality and (ii) determining an appropriate threshold for using this indicator in the context of criticality studies. Relying on a large panel of 33 strategic metals over the 1995-2021 period, our findings show that the variation of HHI has more impact on metal prices at lower HHI levels and question the existence of a threshold that clearly distinguishes high-risk markets from less risky ones based on their concentration levels. Overall, we show that using the HHI as a supply risk indicator, especially in conjunction with a threshold, may result in underestimating risks in less concentrated markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Pauline Bucciarelli & Emmanuel Hache, 2024. "Evaluating criticality of strategic metals: Are the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and usual concentration thresholds still relevant?," Working Papers hal-04452384, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04452384
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04452384
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic metals; Criticality; Herfindahl–Hirschman Index; Metal prices; Panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models

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