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Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

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  • Miedema, Jan H.
  • Moll, Henri C.

Abstract

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li2CO3 into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5Mt and 2.8Mt. Substitution of Li2CO3 in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li2CO3 supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO2 emissions in transport is a futile campaign.

Suggested Citation

  • Miedema, Jan H. & Moll, Henri C., 2013. "Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 204-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:2:p:204-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.01.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Macarena Montané & Gustavo Cáceres & Mauricio Villena & Raúl O’Ryan, 2017. "Techno-Economic Forecasts of Lithium Nitrates for Thermal Storage Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Xichen Lyu & Yingying Xu & Dian Sun, 2021. "An Evolutionary Game Research on Cooperation Mode of the NEV Power Battery Recycling and Gradient Utilization Alliance in the Context of China’s NEV Power Battery Retired Tide," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Hache, Emmanuel & Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Simoen, Marine & Bonnet, Clément & Carcanague, Samuel, 2019. "Critical raw materials and transportation sector electrification: A detailed bottom-up analysis in world transport," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 6-25.
    4. Sun, Xin & Hao, Han & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei, 2017. "Tracing global lithium flow: A trade-linked material flow analysis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 50-61.
    5. Sterba, Jiri & Krzemień, Alicja & Riesgo Fernández, Pedro & Escanciano García-Miranda, Carmen & Fidalgo Valverde, Gregorio, 2019. "Lithium mining: Accelerating the transition to sustainable energy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 416-426.
    6. Shao, Liuguo & Hu, Jianying & Zhang, Hua, 2021. "Evolution of global lithium competition network pattern and its influence factors," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2017. "Material flow analysis of lithium in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 100-106.
    8. Ren, Zhijun & Li, Huajie & Yan, Wenyi & Lv, Weiguang & Zhang, Guangming & Lv, Longyi & Sun, Li & Sun, Zhi & Gao, Wenfang, 2023. "Comprehensive evaluation on production and recycling of lithium-ion batteries: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    9. Jorge M. Uribe & Natalia Restrepo & Montserrat Guillen, 2021. ""Price Bubbles in Lithium Markets around the World"," IREA Working Papers 202110, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2021.
    10. Shao, Liuguo & Kou, Wenwen & Zhang, Hua, 2022. "The evolution of the global cobalt and lithium trade pattern and the impacts of the low-cobalt technology of lithium batteries based on multiplex network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Lu, Bin & Liu, Jingru & Yang, Jianxin, 2017. "Substance flow analysis of lithium for sustainable management in mainland China: 2007–2014," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 109-116.
    12. Liu, Donghui & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Qi, Yabin & Wang, Ze & Jia, Nanfei & Chen, Zhihua, 2020. "Exploring behavior changes of the lithium market in China: Toward technology-oriented future scenarios," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lithium supply; Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery; Substitution; Battery electric vehicles (BEVs); Plugin hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs); Security of supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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