IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-37373-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification

Author

Listed:
  • Chunbo Zhang

    (Cornell University)

  • Xiang Zhao

    (Cornell University)

  • Romain Sacchi

    (Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Fengqi You

    (Cornell University
    Cornell University
    Cornell University)

Abstract

Automotive electrification holds the promise of mitigating transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet at the expense of growing demand for critical metals. Here, we analyze the trade-off between the decarbonization potential of the road transportation sector and its critical metal requirement from the demand-side perspective in 48 major countries committing to decarbonize their road transportation sectors aided by electric vehicles (EVs). Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40–100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909–7513%, 2127–5426%, 1039–2684%, and 1099–2838%, respectively, and grow platinum group metal requirement by 131–179% in the 48 investigated countries, relative to 2020. Higher EV penetration reduces GHG emissions from fuel use regardless of the transportation energy transition, while those from fuel production are more sensitive to energy-sector decarbonization and could reach nearly “net zero” by 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37373-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37373-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37373-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-37373-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Åhman, Max & Nilsson, Lars J., 2008. "Path dependency and the future of advanced vehicles and biofuels," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 80-89, June.
    2. Han Hao & Yong Geng & James E. Tate & Feiqi Liu & Kangda Chen & Xin Sun & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2019. "Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Ashley Nunes & Lucas Woodley & Philip Rossetti, 2022. "Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 527-532, June.
    4. Miedema, Jan H. & Moll, Henri C., 2013. "Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 204-211.
    5. Fan Yang & Yuanyuan Xie & Yelin Deng & Chris Yuan, 2018. "Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. state-level electric vehicle operation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Zachary P. Cano & Dustin Banham & Siyu Ye & Andreas Hintennach & Jun Lu & Michael Fowler & Zhongwei Chen, 2018. "Batteries and fuel cells for emerging electric vehicle markets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 279-289, April.
    7. Florian Knobloch & Steef V. Hanssen & Aileen Lam & Hector Pollitt & Pablo Salas & Unnada Chewpreecha & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Jean-Francois Mercure, 2020. "Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 437-447, June.
    8. Runsen Zhang & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2022. "Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. M. Armand & J.-M. Tarascon, 2008. "Building better batteries," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7179), pages 652-657, February.
    10. Tomer Fishman & Rupert J. Myers & Orlando Rios & T.E. Graedel, 2018. "Implications of Emerging Vehicle Technologies on Rare Earth Supply and Demand in the United States," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Joris Baars & Teresa Domenech & Raimund Bleischwitz & Hans Eric Melin & Oliver Heidrich, 2021. "Circular economy strategies for electric vehicle batteries reduce reliance on raw materials," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 71-79, January.
    12. Ballinger, Benjamin & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Kefford, Benjamin & Parkinson, Brett & Greig, Chris & Smart, Simon, 2019. "The vulnerability of electric vehicle deployment to critical mineral supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    13. Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Tan, Kang Miao & Mithulananthan, N., 2015. "A review on the state-of-the-art technologies of electric vehicle, its impacts and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 365-385.
    14. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
    15. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    16. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    17. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    18. Anqi Zeng & Wu Chen & Kasper Dalgas Rasmussen & Xuehong Zhu & Maren Lundhaug & Daniel B. Müller & Juan Tan & Jakob K. Keiding & Litao Liu & Tao Dai & Anjian Wang & Gang Liu, 2022. "Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Stefan Pauliuk & Niko Heeren, 2020. "ODYM—An open software framework for studying dynamic material systems: Principles, implementation, and data structures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 446-458, June.
    20. Cristina T. Matos & Fabrice Mathieux & Luca Ciacci & Maren Cathrine Lundhaug & María Fernanda Godoy León & Daniel Beat Müller & Jo Dewulf & Konstantinos Georgitzikis & Jaco Huisman, 2022. "Material system analysis: A novel multilayer system approach to correlate EU flows and stocks of Li‐ion batteries and their raw materials," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1261-1276, August.
    21. Paul Wolfram & Stephanie Weber & Kenneth Gillingham & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    22. Sacchi, R. & Bauer, C. & Cox, B. & Mutel, C., 2022. "When, where and how can the electrification of passenger cars reduce greenhouse gas emissions?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    23. Matteo Böhm & Mirco Nanni & Luca Pappalardo, 2022. "Gross polluters and vehicle emissions reduction," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 699-707, August.
    24. Rebecca E. Ciez & J. F. Whitacre, 2019. "Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 148-156, February.
    25. Noel Melton & Jonn Axsen & Daniel Sperling, 2016. "Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(3), pages 1-10, March.
    26. Pete Smith & Steven J. Davis & Felix Creutzig & Sabine Fuss & Jan Minx & Benoit Gabrielle & Etsushi Kato & Robert B. Jackson & Annette Cowie & Elmar Kriegler & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Joeri Rogelj & Ph, 2016. "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 42-50, January.
    27. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adeline Gu'eret & Wolf-Peter Schill & Carlos Gaete-Morales, 2024. "Not flexible enough? Impacts of electric carsharing on a power sector with variable renewables," Papers 2402.19380, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yue Ren & Xin Sun & Paul Wolfram & Shaoqiong Zhao & Xu Tang & Yifei Kang & Dongchang Zhao & Xinzhu Zheng, 2023. "Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zeng, Anqi, 2023. "The slow-release effect of recycling on rapid demand growth of critical metals from EV batteries up to 2050: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Hetong Wang & Kuishuang Feng & Peng Wang & Yuyao Yang & Laixiang Sun & Fan Yang & Wei-Qiang Chen & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Zhou, Wenbin & Cleaver, Christopher J. & Dunant, Cyrille F. & Allwood, Julian M. & Lin, Jianguo, 2023. "Cost, range anxiety and future electricity supply: A review of how today's technology trends may influence the future uptake of BEVs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Yanamandra, Kaushik & Pinisetty, Dinesh & Gupta, Nikhil, 2023. "Impact of carbon additives on lead-acid battery electrodes: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Fang, Yan Ru & Peng, Wei & Urpelainen, Johannes & Hossain, M.S. & Qin, Yue & Ma, Teng & Ren, Ming & Liu, Xiaorui & Zhang, Silu & Huang, Chen & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Neutralizing China's transportation sector requires combined decarbonization efforts from power and hydrogen supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    7. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    8. Meyer, Ina & Kaniovski, Serguei & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012. "Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-74.
    9. Géremi Gilson Dranka & Paula Ferreira, 2020. "Electric Vehicles and Biofuels Synergies in the Brazilian Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Adeline Gu'eret & Wolf-Peter Schill & Carlos Gaete-Morales, 2024. "Not flexible enough? Impacts of electric carsharing on a power sector with variable renewables," Papers 2402.19380, arXiv.org.
    11. Johannes Morfeldt & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    13. Anqi Zeng & Wu Chen & Kasper Dalgas Rasmussen & Xuehong Zhu & Maren Lundhaug & Daniel B. Müller & Juan Tan & Jakob K. Keiding & Litao Liu & Tao Dai & Anjian Wang & Gang Liu, 2022. "Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.
    15. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    16. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.
    17. Zhou, Xi-Yin & Xu, Zhicheng & Zheng, Jialin & Zhou, Ya & Lei, Kun & Fu, Jiafeng & Khu, Soon-Thiam & Yang, Junfeng, 2023. "Internal spillover effect of carbon emission between transportation sectors and electricity generation sectors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 356-366.
    18. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    19. Guo, Zhan, 2013. "Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.
    20. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37373-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.