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Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment

Author

Listed:
  • Han Hao

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Yong Geng

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University
    Shanghai Institute of Pollution Control and Ecological Security
    Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • James E. Tate

    (University of Leeds)

  • Feiqi Liu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Kangda Chen

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Xin Sun

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Zongwei Liu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Fuquan Zhao

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

The majority of transport electrification studies, examining the demand and sustainability of critical metals, have focused on light-duty vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles have often been excluded from the research scope due to their smaller vehicle stock and slower pace of electrification. This study fills this research gap by evaluating the lithium resource impacts from electrification of the heavy-duty segment at the global level. Our results show that a mass electrification of the heavy-duty segment on top of the light-duty segment would substantially increase the lithium demand and impose further strain on the global lithium supply. The significant impact is attributed to the large single-vehicle battery capacity required by heavy-duty vehicles and the expected battery replacement needed within the lifetime of heavy-duty vehicles. We suggest that the ambition of mass electrification in the heavy-duty segment should be treated with cautions for both policy makers and entrepreneurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Hao & Yong Geng & James E. Tate & Feiqi Liu & Kangda Chen & Xin Sun & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2019. "Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13400-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13400-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zeng, Anqi, 2023. "The slow-release effect of recycling on rapid demand growth of critical metals from EV batteries up to 2050: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Liu, Jiaguo & Li, Sujuan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Regional differences and driving factors analysis of carbon emission intensity from transport sector in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Liu, Chang & Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Xie, Chunping, 2022. "The capital market responses to new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies: An event study on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    4. Tian, Xu & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph & Gao, Cuixia & Sun, Xin & Micic, Tatyana & Hao, Han & Wang, Xin, 2021. "Features of critical resource trade networks of lithium-ion batteries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Geng, Jingxuan & Gao, Suofen & Sun, Xin & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han, 2022. "Potential of electric vehicle batteries second use in energy storage systems: The case of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Jingxuan Geng & Han Hao & Xin Sun & Dengye Xun & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2021. "Static material flow analysis of neodymium in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(1), pages 114-124, February.
    7. Hetong Wang & Kuishuang Feng & Peng Wang & Yuyao Yang & Laixiang Sun & Fan Yang & Wei-Qiang Chen & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Liu, Haiping & Li, Huajiao & Qi, Yajie & An, Pengli & Shi, Jianglan & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Identification of high-risk agents and relationships in nickel, cobalt, and lithium trade based on resource-dependent networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Li, Baihua & Li, Huajiao & Dong, Zhiliang & Lu, Yu & Liu, Nairong & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2021. "The global copper material trade network and risk evaluation: A industry chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Lopez, Neil Stephen & Tria, Lew Andrew & Tayo, Leo Allen & Cruzate, Rovinna Janel & Oppus, Carlos & Cabacungan, Paul & Isla, Igmedio & Ansay, Arjun & Garcia, Teodinis & Cabarrubias-Dela Cruz, Kevien &, 2021. "Societal cost-benefit analysis of electric vehicles in the Philippines with the inclusion of impacts to balance of payments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Liu, Boyu & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Jiangfeng & Hao, Yawei & Tang, Yanyan & Li, Yaoming, 2022. "The impacts of critical metal shortage on China's electric vehicle industry development and countermeasure policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    12. Anqi Zeng & Wu Chen & Kasper Dalgas Rasmussen & Xuehong Zhu & Maren Lundhaug & Daniel B. Müller & Juan Tan & Jakob K. Keiding & Litao Liu & Tao Dai & Anjian Wang & Gang Liu, 2022. "Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Xun, Dengye & Hao, Han & Sun, Xin & Geng, Jingxuan & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2022. "Modeling the evolvement of regional fuel cell vehicle supply chain: Implications for enhancing supply chain sustainability," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

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