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Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages

Author

Listed:
  • Anqi Zeng

    (Central South University
    University of Southern Denmark
    Central South University)

  • Wu Chen

    (University of Southern Denmark)

  • Kasper Dalgas Rasmussen

    (University of Southern Denmark)

  • Xuehong Zhu

    (Central South University
    Central South University)

  • Maren Lundhaug

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Daniel B. Müller

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Juan Tan

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Jakob K. Keiding

    (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)

  • Litao Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Tao Dai

    (Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and China Geological Survey)

  • Anjian Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences and China Geological Survey)

  • Gang Liu

    (University of Southern Denmark)

Abstract

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of critical battery materials, such as cobalt, for electric mobility transitions. While battery technology and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand–supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Anqi Zeng & Wu Chen & Kasper Dalgas Rasmussen & Xuehong Zhu & Maren Lundhaug & Daniel B. Müller & Juan Tan & Jakob K. Keiding & Litao Liu & Tao Dai & Anjian Wang & Gang Liu, 2022. "Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29022-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29022-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Zhou, Na & Su, Hui & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Shougeng & Xu, Deyi & Yang, Danhui & Cheng, Jinhua, 2022. "China's lithium supply chain: Security dynamics and policy countermeasures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Yu, Yu & Ma, Daipeng & Zhu, Weiwei, 2023. "Resilience assessment of international cobalt trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    9. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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