IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v7y2014i11p7454-7482d42451.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Author

Listed:
  • Tian Wu

    (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Mengbo Zhang

    (Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

  • Xunmin Ou

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:7:y:2014:i:11:p:7454-7482:d:42451
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/11/7454/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/7/11/7454/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
    2. Hatani, Faith, 2009. "The logic of spillover interception: The impact of global supply chains in China," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 158-166, April.
    3. Chen, Xiaojie & Zhao, Jinhua, 2013. "Bidding to drive: Car license auction policy in Shanghai and its public acceptance," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 39-52.
    4. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
    6. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
    7. Meyer, Ina & Kaniovski, Serguei & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012. "Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-74.
    8. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
    9. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Kebin & Gong, Huiming & Jiang, Kejun & Jin, Yuefu & Shi, Yaodong & Yu, Xin, 2012. "Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    10. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    11. Xunmin Ou & Xiaoyu Yan & Xu Zhang & Xiliang Zhang, 2013. "Life-Cycle Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis for Bio-Liquid Jet Fuel from Open Pond-Based Micro-Algae under China Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 311-333.
    13. Yinhua Mai & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2010. "CHINAGEM: A Monash-Styled Dynamic CGE Model of China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-201, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    14. Wang, Guihua & Bai, Song & Ogden, Joan M., 2009. "Identifying Contributions of On-road Motor Vehicles to Urban Air Pollution Using Travel Demand Model Data," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2700q8x1, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, October.
    16. Lin Gao & Zach C. Winfield, 2012. "Life Cycle Assessment of Environmental and Economic Impacts of Advanced Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1016-1021, February.
    18. Keshavarzian, Maryam & Kamali Anaraki, Sara & Zamani, Mehrzad & Erfanifard, Ali, 2012. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1979-1985.
    19. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    20. Balat, Mustafa & Balat, Havva, 2009. "Recent trends in global production and utilization of bio-ethanol fuel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(11), pages 2273-2282, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan, Jiaze & Wang, Ge & Chen, Siyuan & Zhang, He & Qian, Jiaqi & Mao, Yuxuan, 2022. "Harnessing freight platforms to promote the penetration of long-haul heavy-duty hydrogen fuel-cell trucks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    2. Wu, Tian & Shen, Qu & Xu, Ming & Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin, 2018. "Development and application of an energy use and CO2 emissions reduction evaluation model for China's online car hailing services," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 298-307.
    3. Feiqi Liu & Fuquan Zhao & Zongwei Liu & Han Hao, 2018. "China’s Electric Vehicle Deployment: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Lin Ma & Manhua Wu & Xiujuan Tian & Guanheng Zheng & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Does the different sectoral coverage matter? An analysis of China's carbon trading market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    8. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    9. Cheng Lin & Zhifeng Xu, 2015. "Wheel Torque Distribution of Four-Wheel-Drive Electric Vehicles Based on Multi-Objective Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-17, April.
    10. Xiong, Siqin & Wang, Yunshi & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2021. "A hybrid life cycle assessment of the large-scale application of electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    11. Lian Lian & Wen Tian & Hongfeng Xu & Menglan Zheng, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership Based on Symbolic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    12. ZhiWu Zhou & Julián Alcalá & Víctor Yepes, 2020. "Environmental, Economic and Social Impact Assessment: Study of Bridges in China’s Five Major Economic Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-33, December.
    13. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    14. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "The impact of natural gas price control in China: A computable general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 524-531.
    15. Lin Ma & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "Government Intervention and Automobile Industry Structure: Theory and Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-25, August.
    16. Bu, Chujie & Cui, Xueqin & Li, Ruiyao & Li, Jin & Zhang, Yaxin & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2021. "Achieving net-zero emissions in China’s passenger transport sector through regionally tailored mitigation strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    17. Mingjun Ma & Meng Liu & Ziqiao Li, 2023. "Quantifying the Environmental Impact of Vehicle Emissions Due to Traffic Diversion Plans for Road Infrastructure Construction Projects: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    2. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    3. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    4. Hong Huo & Bo Zheng & Michael Wang & Qiang Zhang & Ke-Bin He, 2015. "Vehicular air pollutant emissions in China: evaluation of past control policies and future perspectives," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 719-733, June.
    5. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    6. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    7. Lin Ma & Manhua Wu & Xiujuan Tian & Guanheng Zheng & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    8. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    9. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    10. Xiaojian Hu & Nuo Chen & Nan Wu & Bicheng Yin, 2021. "The Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Urban Air Quality in Shanghai City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, January.
    11. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    12. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Wu, Ye & Yang, Zhengdong & Lin, Bohong & Liu, Huan & Wang, Renjie & Zhou, Boya & Hao, Jiming, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 537-550.
    14. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    15. Lian Lian & Wen Tian & Hongfeng Xu & Menglan Zheng, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Passenger Car Ownership Based on Symbolic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    16. Yang Li & Shiyu Huang & Yanhui Liu & Yiyi Ju, 2021. "Recycling Potential of Plastic Resources from End-of-Life Passenger Vehicles in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    17. Liu, Yang & Wang, Yu & Huo, Hong, 2013. "Temporal and spatial variations in on-road energy use and CO2 emissions in China, 1978–2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 544-550.
    18. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Liu, Huan & Huang, Ruikun & Un, Puikei & Zhou, Yu & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2014. "Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 247-257.
    19. Lin Ma & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "Government Intervention and Automobile Industry Structure: Theory and Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-25, August.
    20. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:7:y:2014:i:11:p:7454-7482:d:42451. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.