Medium-term projections of vehicle ownership, energy demand and vehicular emissions from private road transport in India

Rapid growth of private vehicle ownership in emerging economies like India has major implications on transport infrastructure, energy demand and emissions targets. This study attempts to model the relationship between income and vehicle ownership for two-wheelers and cars in India. Further, the study aims to project various medium-term scenarios of vehicle ownership, fuel demand, and vehicular emission based on economic growth rates and electric vehicle adoption scenarios. Road infrastructure requirements and subsequent CO2 emissions are also forecasted. Using time series data from 1960 to 2019, a nonlinear Gompertz function is estimated. Subsequently, a bottom-up methodology is used to forecast energy demand and emissions. This study proposes and utilises an incremental addition to vehicle stock approach to estimate on-road vehicles. In addition, it also incorporates longer time series to include the exponential growth of private vehicles in the previous decade. Further inclusion of electric vehicles and its related electricity demand and emissions are presented. The results indicate an addition of 107–145 million vehicles to existing fleet by 2030. During this decade 200–250 million vehicles are projected to ply on-road annually resulting in a peak fuel demand of 60 million tons and CO2 emissions of up to 174 million tons. However, with the adoption of EVs and ownership approaching saturation levels, both fuel demand and vehicular emissions are forecasted to peak before they subsequently decline. Lastly, appropriate transport policy measures and investment spheres are required to direct concentrated efforts. Hence, a discussion of how to reduce dependency on private vehicles and regulate vehicular emissions is also suggested.