IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v35y2011i1p49-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

Author

Listed:
  • Salil Arora
  • Anant Vyas
  • Larry R. Johnson

Abstract

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two‐wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206‐309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle‐growth and three fuel‐economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle‐growth and fuel‐economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404‐719 million metric tons (8.5‐15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO2 emissions are projected to be 1.2‐2.2 billion metric tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Salil Arora & Anant Vyas & Larry R. Johnson, 2011. "Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 49-62, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01341.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01341.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01341.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iyer, Narayan V. & Badami, Madhav G., 2007. "Two-wheeled motor vehicle technology in India: Evolution, prospects and issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4319-4331, August.
    2. Taoufik Bouachera & Mohammad Mazraati, 2007. "Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 27-51, March.
    3. World Bank, 2005. "India : Road Transport Service Efficiency Study," World Bank Publications - Reports 8356, The World Bank Group.
    4. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4367, December.
    5. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8151, December.
    6. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    7. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 2006. "Future mobility in India: Implications for energy demand and CO2 emission," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 398-412, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/055, Research Africa Network (RAN).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    2. Baidya, S. & Borken-Kleefeld, J., 2009. "Atmospheric emissions from road transportation in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3812-3822, October.
    3. Krishna Saw & Ashu Kedia, 2023. "Estimating the adoption of electric vehicles: A case study of four Indian states," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 24(2-3), pages 120-135, June.
    4. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Alexander Moradi, 2010. "Selective Mortality or Growth after Childhood? What Really is Key to Understand the Puzzlingly Tall Adult Heights in Sub-Saharan Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele, 2012. "Energy and climate change in China," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 689-713, December.
    8. Karima Saleh, 2012. "World Bank study : A Health Sector in Transition to Universal Coverage in Ghana," World Bank Publications - Reports 2728, The World Bank Group.
    9. Emanuele Massetti, 2011. "Carbon tax scenarios for China and India: exploring politically feasible mitigation goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 209-227, September.
    10. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob Haan, 2013. "Political Regime and Human Capital: A Cross-Country Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 45-73, March.
    11. Uche Ozughalu, 2016. "Relationship Between Household Food Poverty and Vulnerability to Food Poverty: Evidence from Nigeria," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 567-587, January.
    12. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    13. Keshavarzian, Maryam & Kamali Anaraki, Sara & Zamani, Mehrzad & Erfanifard, Ali, 2012. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1979-1985.
    14. Richard B. Dadzie, 2013. "Economic Development and the Developmental State," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 29(2), pages 123-154, June.
    15. David E. Bloom & Jocelyn Finlay & Salal Humair & Andrew Mason & Olanrewaju Olaniyan & Adedoyin Soyibo, 2016. "Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective," PGDA Working Papers 12715, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    16. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    17. Li, Aijun & Du, Nan & Wei, Qian, 2014. "The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 155-163.
    18. Erkki Karo & Rainer Kattel, 2010. "The Copying Paradox: Why Converging Policies but Diverging Capacities in Eastern European Innovation Systems?," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 2(2), pages 167-206, October.
    19. Azevedo, Viviane & Bouillon, César P., 2009. "Social Mobility in Latin America: A Review of Existing Evidence," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1656, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:49-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.