IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria


  • Monica Maduekwe

    (Praia, Cabo Verde)

  • Uduak Akpan

    (SPIDER Solutions, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria)

  • Salisu Isihak

    (Rural Electrification Agency, Abuja, Nigeria)


The “Avoid†, “Shift†and “Improve†(A-S-I) approach is an effective method for transforming an unsustainable transport system to a sustainable one. This study intends to examine the possible impact of the A-S-I policy measures in transforming the transportation system in Lagos - the most populous city and the commercial capital of Nigeria. The study employs the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to project future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions to determine the most effective A-S-I option for the city. We construct a business-as-usual scenario for Lagos as well as sustainable road transport alternative policy scenarios. The results show that Lagos’ biggest obstacle to achieving its emission reduction target is the presence of very old vehicles on its roads. Our analysis shows that emission reduction in the road transport sector in Lagos is sensitive to vehicle survivability rate (i.e. the fraction of vehicles of a certain age still driven). We conclude that unless the age limit of vehicles in Lagos reduces from 40 years to 22 years, vehicle growth rate from 5% to 2% and mileage by 2% per year from 2020- 2032, Lagos may not achieve the target 50% emission reduction by 2032.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/055, Research Africa Network (RAN).
  • Handle: RePEc:abh:wpaper:20/055

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Revised version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    2. Sadri, A. & Ardehali, M.M. & Amirnekooei, K., 2014. "General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 831-843.
    3. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 2006. "Future mobility in India: Implications for energy demand and CO2 emission," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 398-412, September.
    4. Ohimain, Elijah Ige, 2013. "A review of the Nigerian biofuel policy and incentives (2007)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 246-256.
    5. Salil Arora & Anant Vyas & Larry R. Johnson, 2011. "Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO 2 emissions in India to 2040," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35, pages 49-62, February.
    6. Mraihi, Rafaa & ben Abdallah, Khaled & Abid, Mehdi, 2013. "Road transport-related energy consumption: Analysis of driving factors in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 247-253.
    7. Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-Cui & Fan, Ying & Wu, Gang, 2007. "The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2 emission: An empirical analysis of China's residents," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 247-257, January.
    8. Salil Arora & Anant Vyas & Larry R. Johnson, 2011. "Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 49-62, February.
    9. Limanond, Thirayoot & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj & Srikaew, Artit, 2011. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2754-2763, May.
    10. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    11. Uduak Akpan, 2014. "Impact of Regional Road Infrastructure Improvement on Intra-Regional Trade in ECOWAS," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(S1), pages 64-76, November.
    12. Chavez-Baeza, Carlos & Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia, 2014. "Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 624-634.
    13. Pukšec, Tomislav & Krajačić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Duić, Neven, 2013. "Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 169-176.
    14. Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2003. "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1493-1507, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Daniels, Chux & AbdulRafiu, Abbas, 2022. "Transitioning to electrified, automated and shared mobility in an African context: A comparative review of Johannesburg, Kigali, Lagos and Nairobi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Olasupo O. Ajayi & Antoine B. Bagula & Hloniphani C. Maluleke & Isaac A. Odun-Ayo, 2021. "Transport Inequalities and the Adoption of Intelligent Transportation Systems in Africa: A Research Landscape," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Donald Ukpanyang & Julio Terrados-Cepeda, 2022. "Decarbonizing Vehicle Transportation with Hydrogen from Biomass Gasification: An Assessment in the Nigerian Urban Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ugwoke, B. & Gershon, O. & Becchio, C. & Corgnati, S.P. & Leone, P., 2020. "A review of Nigerian energy access studies: The story told so far," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Sonmez, Mustafa & Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar & Bektaş, Salih, 2017. "Estimating transportation energy demand in Turkey using the artificial bee colony algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 301-310.
    3. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Flavia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Adam Hawkes & Dominique Mouette, 2020. "Assessment of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions in the Road Freight Transport Sector: A Case Study for São Paulo State, Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2018. "Low-carbon measures for Fiji's land transport energy system," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-147.
    6. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Yeqi An & Yulin Zhou & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Forecasting India’s Electricity Demand Using a Range of Probabilistic Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
    8. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Martínez-Gómez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    9. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Kim, Jongwook & Chun, Dongphil, 2016. "Analysis on the level of contribution to the national greenhouse gas reduction target in Korean transportation sector using LEAP model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 549-559.
    10. Llorca, Manuel & Baños, José & Somoza, José & Arbués, Pelayo, 2014. "A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport: An application to Latin America and the Caribbean," Efficiency Series Papers 2014/04, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    11. Chuan Tian & Guohui Feng & Shuai Li & Fuqiang Xu, 2019. "Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-26, September.
    12. Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Bryan, Elizabeth & Ringler, Claudia & Mekonnen, Dawit & Rosegrant, Mark, 2018. "Ethiopian energy status and demand scenarios: Prospects to improve energy efficiency and mitigate GHG emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 161-172.
    13. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    14. Tao Lin & Junna Yan, 2017. "Investigating the sensitivity factors of household indirect CO2 emission from the production side," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 721-740, September.
    15. Martínez-Jaramillo, Juan Esteban & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Jaramillo-Álvarez, Patricia, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of transport policies through energy system simulation: The case of the Medellin Metropolitan Area, Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-108.
    16. Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
    17. Saket, Mohammad Javad & Maleki, Abbas & Hezaveh, Erfan Doroudgar & Karimi, Mohammad Sadegh, 2019. "Institutional analysis on impediments over fuel consumption reduction at Iran's transportation niches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 861-867.
    18. Stanley U. Okoro & Udo Schickhoff & Uwe A. Schneider, 2018. "Impacts of Bioenergy Policies on Land-Use Change in Nigeria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Muhammad Muhitur Rahman & Syed Masiur Rahman & Md Shafiullah & Md Arif Hasan & Uneb Gazder & Abdullah Al Mamun & Umer Mansoor & Mohammad Tamim Kashifi & Omer Reshi & Md Arifuzzaman & Md Kamrul Islam &, 2022. "Energy Demand of the Road Transport Sector of Saudi Arabia—Application of a Causality-Based Machine Learning Model to Ensure Sustainable Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Sahraei, Mohammad Ali & Duman, Hakan & Çodur, Muhammed Yasin & Eyduran, Ecevit, 2021. "Prediction of transportation energy demand: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

    More about this item


    Road transport; energy consumption; greenhouse gas emissions; LEAP; Lagos; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abh:wpaper:20/055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anutechia Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.