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Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

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  • Pukšec, Tomislav
  • Krajačić, Goran
  • Lulić, Zoran
  • Mathiesen, Brian Vad
  • Duić, Neven

Abstract

The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.

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  • Pukšec, Tomislav & Krajačić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Duić, Neven, 2013. "Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 169-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.071
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    6. Prebeg, Pero & Gasparovic, Goran & Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven, 2016. "Long-term energy planning of Croatian power system using multi-objective optimization with focus on renewable energy and integration of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1493-1507.
    7. Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Working Papers 20/055, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
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    10. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Transition towards renewable energy supply in Croatia," MPRA Paper 63957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Helena Stimac & Juraj Vistica, 2018. "Transport Policy From Perspectives Of Passengers, Cargo, Energy: Croatia Vs European Union Countries," Business Logistics in Modern Management, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 18, pages 55-72.
    12. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
    13. Rešetar, Marko & Pejić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran, 2018. "Changes and trends in the Croatian road vehicle fleet – Need for change of policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 92-105.
    14. Pukšec, Tomislav & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2014. "Assessing the impact of energy saving measures on the future energy demand and related GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction of Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-209.
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