IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v60y2016icp1634-1653.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Connolly, D.
  • Lund, H.
  • Mathiesen, B.V.

Abstract

This study presents one scenario for a 100% renewable energy system in Europe by the year 2050. The transition from a business-as-usual situation in 2050, to a 100% renewable energy Europe is analysed in a series of steps. Each step reflects one major technological change. For each step, the impact is presented in terms of energy (primary energy supply), environment (carbon dioxide emissions), and economy (total annual socio-economic cost). The steps are ordered in terms of their scientific and political certainty as follows: decommissioning nuclear power, implementing a large amount of heat savings, converting the private car fleet to electricity, providing heat in rural areas with heat pumps, providing heat in urban areas with district heating, converting fuel in heavy-duty vehicles to a renewable electrofuel, and replacing natural gas with methane. The results indicate that by using the Smart Energy System approach, a 100% renewable energy system in Europe is technically possible without consuming an unsustainable amount of bioenergy. This is due to the additional flexibility that is created by connecting the electricity, heating, cooling, and transport sectors together, which enables an intermittent renewable penetration of over 80% in the electricity sector. The cost of the Smart Energy Europe scenario is approximately 10–15% higher than a business-as-usual scenario, but since the final scenario is based on local investments instead of imported fuels, it will create approximately 10 million additional direct jobs within the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:1634-1653
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116002331
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harris, Grant & Heptonstall, Phil & Gross, Robert & Handley, David, 2013. "Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 431-442.
    2. Andersen, Poul H. & Mathews, John A. & Rask, Morten, 2009. "Integrating private transport into renewable energy policy: The strategy of creating intelligent recharging grids for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2481-2486, July.
    3. Richardson, David B., 2013. "Electric vehicles and the electric grid: A review of modeling approaches, Impacts, and renewable energy integration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 247-254.
    4. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    5. Connolly, D. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Ridjan, I., 2014. "A comparison between renewable transport fuels that can supplement or replace biofuels in a 100% renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 110-125.
    6. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    7. Lund, Henrik & Andersen, Anders N. & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2012. "From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems – A market operation based approach and understanding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-102.
    8. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.
    9. Zvingilaite, Erika, 2011. "Human health-related externalities in energy system modelling the case of the Danish heat and power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 535-544, February.
    10. Delucchi, Mark A. & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2011. "Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1170-1190, March.
    11. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Ingraffea, Anthony R. & Howarth, Robert W. & Bazouin, Guillaume & Bridgeland, Brett & Burkart, Karl & Chang, Martin & Chowdhury, Navid & Cook, Roy & Escher, Giu, 2014. "A roadmap for repowering California for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 875-889.
    12. Sperling, Karl & Hvelplund, Frede & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2011. "Centralisation and decentralisation in strategic municipal energy planning in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1338-1351, March.
    13. Graves, Christopher & Ebbesen, Sune D. & Mogensen, Mogens & Lackner, Klaus S., 2011. "Sustainable hydrocarbon fuels by recycling CO2 and H2O with renewable or nuclear energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 502-507, February.
    15. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    16. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    17. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    18. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    19. Alberg Østergaard, Poul & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Möller, Bernd & Lund, Henrik, 2010. "A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4892-4901.
    20. Persson, U. & Möller, B. & Werner, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-681.
    21. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    22. Spiecker, Stephan & Weber, Christoph, 2014. "The future of the European electricity system and the impact of fluctuating renewable energy – A scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 185-197.
    23. Elliston, Ben & MacGill, Iain & Diesendorf, Mark, 2014. "Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 196-204.
    24. Glasnovic, Zvonimir & Margeta, Jure, 2011. "Vision of total renewable electricity scenario," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 1873-1884, May.
    25. Ruth Offermann & Thilo Seidenberger & Daniela Thrän & Martin Kaltschmitt & Sergey Zinoviev & Stanislav Miertus, 2011. "Assessment of global bioenergy potentials," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 103-115, January.
    26. Jay Gregg & Steven Smith, 2010. "Global and regional potential for bioenergy from agricultural and forestry residue biomass," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 241-262, March.
    27. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A., 2011. "Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1154-1169, March.
    28. Lund, Henrik & Werner, Sven & Wiltshire, Robin & Svendsen, Svend & Thorsen, Jan Eric & Hvelplund, Frede & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2014. "4th Generation District Heating (4GDH)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-11.
    29. Luca Petricca & Per Ohlckers & Xuyuan Chen, 2013. "The Future of Energy Storage Systems," Chapters, in: Ahmed F. Zobaa (ed.), Energy Storage - Technologies and Applications, IntechOpen.
    30. Steinke, Florian & Wolfrum, Philipp & Hoffmann, Clemens, 2013. "Grid vs. storage in a 100% renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 826-832.
    31. Connor, Peter M. & Baker, Philip E. & Xenias, Dimitrios & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Axon, Colin J. & Cipcigan, Liana, 2014. "Policy and regulation for smart grids in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 269-286.
    32. Lund, Henrik & Hvelplund, Frede, 2012. "The economic crisis and sustainable development: The design of job creation strategies by use of concrete institutional economics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 192-200.
    33. Schaber, Katrin & Steinke, Florian & Mühlich, Pascal & Hamacher, Thomas, 2012. "Parametric study of variable renewable energy integration in Europe: Advantages and costs of transmission grid extensions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 498-508.
    34. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Connolly, David, 2012. "Limiting biomass consumption for heating in 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 160-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    2. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    4. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    5. David Maya-Drysdale & Louise Krog Jensen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "Energy Vision Strategies for the EU Green New Deal: A Case Study of European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    7. Md. Nasimul Islam Maruf, 2019. "Sector Coupling in the North Sea Region—A Review on the Energy System Modelling Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    8. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Connolly, David & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2017. "Smart energy and smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 556-565.
    9. Maruf, Md. Nasimul Islam, 2021. "Open model-based analysis of a 100% renewable and sector-coupled energy system–The case of Germany in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    10. Djørup, Søren & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter, 2018. "The electricity market in a renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 148-157.
    11. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
    12. Hvelplund, Frede & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Meyer, Niels I., 2017. "Incentives and barriers for wind power expansion and system integration in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 573-584.
    13. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    14. Ashfaq, Asad & Kamali, Zulqarnain Haider & Agha, Mujtaba Hassan & Arshid, Hirra, 2017. "Heat coupling of the pan-European vs. regional electrical grid with excess renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 363-377.
    15. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N., 2021. "Variable taxes promoting district heating heat pump flexibility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    16. Sperling, K. & Arler, F., 2020. "Local government innovation in the energy sector: A study of key actors’ strategies and arguments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Dominković, D.F. & Weinand, J.M. & Scheller, F. & D'Andrea, M. & McKenna, R., 2022. "Reviewing two decades of energy system analysis with bibliometrics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Werner, S. & Möller, B. & Persson, U. & Boermans, T. & Trier, D. & Østergaard, P.A. & Nielsen, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Combining district heating with heat savings to decarbonise the EU energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 475-489.
    19. Child, Michael & Breyer, Christian, 2016. "Vision and initial feasibility analysis of a recarbonised Finnish energy system for 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 517-536.
    20. Olav H. Hohmeyer & Sönke Bohm, 2015. "Trends toward 100% renewable electricity supply in Germany and Europe: a paradigm shift in energy policies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:1634-1653. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.