Will restrictions on CO2 emissions require reductions in transport demand?
In this paper, the potential for the transportation sector to develop in a way that is consistent with long-term climate targets will be discussed. An important question is whether technical measures will be sufficient for reaching long-term climate targets. Although there is a large potential to significantly increase the use of bioenergy from today's level, there will be severe restrictions to its use within the transportation sector. Other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are much more abundant and could provide the majority of the necessary transportation fuel in the long run. Although potentially much more expensive than current fuels they could, in combination with strong efficiency improvements, provide transport services at costs that could be acceptable in a growing economy. Transport levels as high as today or even higher could be consistent from a climate perspective if such fuels and technologies are utilised. Relying only on technical measures would, however, be risky, as there is no guarantee that the technology will develop at a sufficient rate. Furthermore, the existence of other negative environmental effects would argue for the implementation of measures affecting transport demand as well.
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