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Path dependency and the future of advanced vehicles and biofuels

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  • Åhman, Max
  • Nilsson, Lars J.

Abstract

The accumulated experience and path-dependent development of petroleum-based transport fuels and internal combustion engine vehicles has created an apparent technological lock-in. Our analysis of a RApid Future vehicles and Fuels scenario (RAFF) for the EU shows that ambitious carbon emission reductions can be achieved even with projected increases in road transport. Furthermore, escaping the lock-in does not seem insurmountable. For this purpose, three strategic technology platforms should be supported: the electric drivetrain, the biochemical, and the thermo-chemical platforms. Each platform has its own characteristics and exhibits its own path dependencies that are relevant to consider with the aim of accelerating their development and application. Contrary to conventional wisdom indicating that governments should not pick winners, we argue that these three platforms should be subject to focused and concerted development efforts. They all offer advantages to transport as well as other applications, and they match low-carbon futures in which electricity and/or hydrogen are important energy carriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Åhman, Max & Nilsson, Lars J., 2008. "Path dependency and the future of advanced vehicles and biofuels," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 80-89, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:16:y:2008:i:2:p:80-89
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    8. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2020. "Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
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    10. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Raslavičius, Laurencas & Keršys, Artūras & Starevičius, Martynas & Sapragonas, Jonas & Bazaras, Žilvinas, 2014. "Biofuels, sustainability and the transport sector in Lithuania," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 328-346.
    12. Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.
    13. de Gooyert, Vincent & Rouwette, Etiënne & van Kranenburg, Hans & Freeman, Edward & van Breen, Harry, 2016. "Sustainability transition dynamics: Towards overcoming policy resistance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 135-145.
    14. Lindfeldt, Erik G. & Saxe, Maria & Magnusson, Mimmi & Mohseni, Farzad, 2010. "Strategies for a road transport system based on renewable resources - The case of an import-independent Sweden in 2025," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1836-1845, June.
    15. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
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