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Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts

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Listed:
  • Huo, Hong
  • Wang, Michael
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • He, Kebin
  • Gong, Huiming
  • Jiang, Kejun
  • Jin, Yuefu
  • Shi, Yaodong
  • Yu, Xin

Abstract

We project the well-to-wheels (WTW) and tank-to-wheels (TTW) fossil-energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road-transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel-consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil-equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300MMT of CO2-equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel-consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil-energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Kebin & Gong, Huiming & Jiang, Kejun & Jin, Yuefu & Shi, Yaodong & Yu, Xin, 2012. "Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:37-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huo, Hong & Yao, Zhiliang & He, Kebin & Yu, Xin, 2011. "Fuel consumption rates of passenger cars in China: Labels versus real-world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7130-7135.
    2. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
    3. He, Kebin & Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Dongquan & An, Feng & Wang, Michael & Walsh, Michael P., 2005. "Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1499-1507, August.
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    5. Wang, Haikun & Fu, Lixin & Bi, Jun, 2011. "CO2 and pollutant emissions from passenger cars in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3005-3011, May.
    6. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan & Guo, Qingfang, 2009. "Energy consumption and GHG emissions of six biofuel pathways by LCA in (the) People's Republic of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 197-208, November.
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