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Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures

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  • Hao, Han
  • Wang, Hewu
  • Ouyang, Minggao

Abstract

We established a bottom-up model to deliver the future trends of fuel consumption and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by China's on-road trucks. The mitigation measures of mileage utilization rate (MUR) improvement, fuel consumption rate (FCR) improvement, and penetration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueled trucks were evaluated. With no mitigation measures implemented, in the year 2050, the total fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China's on-road trucks were projected to reach 498 million toe and 2125 million tons, respectively, approximately 5.2 times the level in 2010. If the MUR of trucks in China is increased from the current status as those of the developed countries, a 13% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2020. If the FCR of trucks is reduced by 10% in 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026, a 30% reduction of total fuel consumption can be achieved after 2030. Moreover, if the share of LNG fueled trucks in all newly registered semi-trailer towing trucks and heavy-duty trucks is increased to 20% in 2030, an estimate of 7.9% and 10.9% of the total diesel consumption by trucks will be replaced by LNG in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

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  • Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2012. "Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:244-251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Luo, Xiao & Dong, Liang & Dou, Yi & Liang, Hanwei & Ren, Jingzheng & Fang, Kai, 2016. "Regional disparity analysis of Chinese freight transport CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2007: Driving forces and policy challenges," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Li, Weiqi & Guo, Bin, 2015. "Energy consumption and GHG emissions from China's freight transport sector: Scenarios through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 94-101.
    8. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    9. Chuanjun Lyu & Xunmin Ou & Xiliang Zhang, 2015. "China automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions outlook to 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 627-650, June.
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    12. Hualong Yang & Xuefei Ma & Yuwei Xing, 2017. "Trends in CO 2 Emissions from China-Oriented International Marine Transportation Activities and Policy Implications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Xiaodong Li & Haibo Kuang & Yan Hu, 2019. "Carbon Mitigation Strategies of Port Selection and Multimodal Transport Operations—A Case Study of Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Han Hao & Feiqi Liu & Xin Sun & Zongwei Liu & Fuquan Zhao, 2019. "Quantifying the Energy, Environmental, Economic, Resource Co-Benefits and Risks of GHG Emissions Abatement: The Case of Passenger Vehicles in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-12, March.
    15. Juan C. González Palencia & Van Tuan Nguyen & Mikiya Araki & Seiichi Shiga, 2020. "The Role of Powertrain Electrification in Achieving Deep Decarbonization in Road Freight Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    17. Mahmoud, Moataz & Garnett, Ryan & Ferguson, Mark & Kanaroglou, Pavlos, 2016. "Electric buses: A review of alternative powertrains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 673-684.
    18. Verônica Ghisolfi & Lóránt Antal Tavasszy & Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia & Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves & Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro, 2022. "Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-30, March.
    19. Hewu Wang & Xiaobin Zhang & Lvwei Wu & Cong Hou & Huiming Gong & Qian Zhang & Minggao Ouyang, 2015. "Beijing passenger car travel survey: implications for alternative fuel vehicle deployment," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 817-835, June.
    20. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi, 2016. "Natural gas as vehicle fuel in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 521-533.
    21. Han Hao & Michael Wang & Yan Zhou & Hewu Wang & Minggao Ouyang, 2015. "Levelized costs of conventional and battery electric vehicles in china: Beijing experiences," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1229-1246, October.

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