IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v86y2015icp369-384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Weiqi
  • Dai, Yaping
  • Ma, Linwei
  • Hao, Han
  • Lu, Haiyan
  • Albinson, Rosemary
  • Li, Zheng

Abstract

This paper proposed a COSM (cost-optimization superstructure model) and derived the optimized oil-saving pathways for road freight transportation in China until 2030. The optimization target of the COSM was to minimize the accumulated energy and vehicle costs from 2010 to 2030 by choosing the most cost-effective fuel option for newly registered trucks each year. Based on the COSM, three scenarios were developed to evaluate the oil-saving pathway in terms of imported crude oil price, available alternative fuels and GHG emission reduction. The scenario analysis results indicate that: (1) for scenario A, the accumulated oil-saving potential was approximately about 13%, while the oil-saving potential of improving fuel consumption rate and load running rate was 17% and 16%; (2) for scenario B, the accumulated oil-saving potential increased to 82% in reference oil price and 23% in low oil price; (3) for scenario C, to reduce per ton of GHG emission, the increased cost will increase from 34 USD to 450 USD when the GHG emission target decreased from 15.4 billion tons to the turn point of 13.5 billion tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Weiqi & Dai, Yaping & Ma, Linwei & Hao, Han & Lu, Haiyan & Albinson, Rosemary & Li, Zheng, 2015. "Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 369-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:369-384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.04.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215004879
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.04.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ma, Linwei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Liu, Pei, 2012. "Oil development in China: Current status and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 43-53.
    2. Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian & Chock, David & Chai, Qinhu & Zhang, Aling, 2012. "Well-to-wheels life-cycle analysis of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
    3. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 3943-3956, August.
    4. Yu, Suiran & Tao, Jing, 2009. "Energy efficiency assessment by life cycle simulation of cassava-based fuel ethanol for automotive use in Chinese Guangxi context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 22-31.
    5. Zhou, Zhe & Zhang, Jianyun & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N., 2013. "A two-stage stochastic programming model for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 135-144.
    6. Ou, Xunmin & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang & Liu, Zhen, 2012. "Life-cycle analysis on energy consumption and GHG emission intensities of alternative vehicle fuels in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-224.
    7. Li, Weiqi & Fu, Feng & Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng & Dai, Yaping, 2013. "A process-based model for estimating the well-to-tank cost of gasoline and diesel in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 718-725.
    8. Liimatainen, Heikki & Kallionpää, Erika & Pöllänen, Markus & Stenholm, Pekka & Tapio, Petri & McKinnon, Alan, 2014. "Decarbonizing road freight in the future — Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 177-191.
    9. Yeh, Sonia, 2007. "An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5865-5875, November.
    10. Zhang, Qingyu & Tian, Weili & Zheng, Yingyue & Zhang, Lili, 2010. "Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6860-6867, November.
    11. Zhang, Dongjie & Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Zhang, Lili & Li, Zheng, 2012. "A multi-period superstructure optimisation model for the optimal planning of China's power sector considering carbon dioxide mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 173-183.
    12. Baptista, Patrícia C. & Silva, Carla M. & Farias, Tiago L. & Heywood, John B., 2012. "Energy and environmental impacts of alternative pathways for the Portuguese road transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 802-815.
    13. Arteconi, A. & Brandoni, C. & Evangelista, D. & Polonara, F., 2010. "Life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis of LNG as a heavy vehicle fuel in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 2005-2013, June.
    14. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 658-668, February.
    15. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2012. "Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-251.
    16. Hu, Xiaojun & Chang, Shiyan & Li, Jingjie & Qin, Yining, 2010. "Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges, initiatives and policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4289-4301.
    17. Ma, Linwei & Geng, Jia & Li, Weqi & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2013. "The development of natural gas as an automotive fuel in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 531-539.
    18. Bahn, Olivier & Marcy, Mathilde & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Waaub, Jean-Philippe, 2013. "Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 593-606.
    19. Yeh, Sonia, 2007. "An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles:The case of natural gas vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2k09h787, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    20. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Kebin & Gong, Huiming & Jiang, Kejun & Jin, Yuefu & Shi, Yaodong & Yu, Xin, 2012. "Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    21. Yeh, Sonia, 2007. "An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles:The case of natural gas vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt92h7g194, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    22. Chang, Shiyan & Zhao, Lili & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Zhang, Xiliang, 2012. "Biofuels development in China: Technology options and policies needed to meet the 2020 target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-79.
    23. Xunmin Ou & Xiliang Zhang & Xu Zhang & Qian Zhang, 2013. "Life Cycle GHG of NG-Based Fuel and Electric Vehicle in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-19, May.
    24. Liu, Pei & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N. & Li, Zheng, 2010. "An energy systems engineering approach to the optimal design of energy systems in commercial buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4224-4231, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adekomaya, Oludaisi & Jamiru, Tamba & Sadiku, Rotimi & Huan, Zhongie, 2017. "Minimizing energy consumption in refrigerated vehicles through alternative external wall," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 89-93.
    2. Zhang, Haoran & Liang, Yongtu & Liao, Qi & Wu, Mengyu & Yan, Xiaohan, 2017. "A hybrid computational approach for detailed scheduling of products in a pipeline with multiple pump stations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 612-628.
    3. Li, Wenjie & Yang, Lixing & Wang, Li & Zhou, Xuesong & Liu, Ronghui & Gao, Ziyou, 2017. "Eco-reliable path finding in time-variant and stochastic networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 372-387.
    4. Juan C. González Palencia & Van Tuan Nguyen & Mikiya Araki & Seiichi Shiga, 2020. "The Role of Powertrain Electrification in Achieving Deep Decarbonization in Road Freight Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Osorio-Tejada, Jose Luis & Llera-Sastresa, Eva & Scarpellini, Sabina, 2017. "Liquefied natural gas: Could it be a reliable option for road freight transport in the EU?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 785-795.
    6. Letnik, Tomislav & Marksel, Maršenka & Luppino, Giuseppe & Bardi, Andrea & Božičnik, Stane, 2018. "Review of policies and measures for sustainable and energy efficient urban transport," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 245-257.
    7. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tu, Xiaohua, 2016. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 131-139.
    8. Abiye Tob-Ogu & Niraj Kumar & John Cullen & Erica E. F. Ballantyne, 2018. "Sustainability Intervention Mechanisms for Managing Road Freight Transport Externalities: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Matthias Klumpp, 2016. "To Green or Not to Green: A Political, Economic and Social Analysis for the Past Failure of Green Logistics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Li, Yaoming & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & McLellan, Benjamin & Gao, Yuan & Tang, Yanyan, 2018. "Substitution effect of New-Energy Vehicle Credit Program and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption Regulation for Green-car Subsidy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 223-236.
    11. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    12. Song, Hongqing & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Jiehui & Yu, Mingxu & Wang, Cheng, 2017. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of diesel/LNG heavy-duty vehicle fleets in China based on a bottom-up model analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 966-978.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Hongxia & Fang, Hong & Yu, Xueying & Wang, Ke, 2015. "Development of natural gas vehicles in China: An assessment of enabling factors and barriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 80-93.
    2. Zhang, Yong & Yu, Yifeng & Zou, Bai, 2011. "Analyzing public awareness and acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles in China: The case of EV," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7015-7024.
    3. Song, Hongqing & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Jiehui & Yu, Mingxu & Wang, Cheng, 2017. "Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of diesel/LNG heavy-duty vehicle fleets in China based on a bottom-up model analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 966-978.
    4. Osorio-Tejada, Jose Luis & Llera-Sastresa, Eva & Scarpellini, Sabina, 2017. "Liquefied natural gas: Could it be a reliable option for road freight transport in the EU?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 785-795.
    5. Pfoser, Sarah & Schauer, Oliver & Costa, Yasel, 2018. "Acceptance of LNG as an alternative fuel: Determinants and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 259-267.
    6. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    7. Feiqi Liu & Fuquan Zhao & Zongwei Liu & Han Hao, 2018. "China’s Electric Vehicle Deployment: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Peng, Tianduo & Ou, Xunmin & Yuan, Zhiyi & Yan, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand and GHG emissions analysis model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 313-328.
    9. Ou, Xunmin & Zhang, Xiliang & Chang, Shiyan, 2010. "Alternative fuel buses currently in use in China: Life-cycle fossil energy use, GHG emissions and policy recommendations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 406-418, January.
    10. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo Leonardo & Rojas, Pedro & Aurazo, José, 2021. "Pricing Coordination in a Spatial Context: Evidence from the Retail Vehicular Natural Gas Market of Peru," Documentos de Trabajo 006, Escuela de Postgrado GERENS.
    11. Arteconi, A. & Polonara, F., 2013. "LNG as vehicle fuel and the problem of supply: The Italian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 503-512.
    12. Sehatpour, Mohammad-Hadi & Kazemi, Aliyeh & Sehatpour, Hesam-eddin, 2017. "Evaluation of alternative fuels for light-duty vehicles in Iran using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 295-310.
    13. Charles Kagiri & Lijun Zhang & Xiaohua Xia, 2019. "A Hierarchical Optimisation of a Compressed Natural Gas Station for Energy and Fuelling Efficiency under a Demand Response Program," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Girma T. Chala & Abd Rashid Abd Aziz & Ftwi Y. Hagos, 2018. "Natural Gas Engine Technologies: Challenges and Energy Sustainability Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-44, October.
    15. Peterson, Meghan B. & Barter, Garrett E. & West, Todd H. & Manley, Dawn K., 2014. "A parametric study of light-duty natural gas vehicle competitiveness in the United States through 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 206-217.
    16. Chen, Zheng & Zhang, Fan & Xu, Boya & Zhang, Quanchang & Liu, Jingping, 2017. "Influence of methane content on a LNG heavy-duty engine with high compression ratio," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-336.
    17. Wang, Renjie & Wu, Ye & Ke, Wenwei & Zhang, Shaojun & Zhou, Boya & Hao, Jiming, 2015. "Can propulsion and fuel diversity for the bus fleet achieve the win–win strategy of energy conservation and environmental protection?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 92-103.
    18. Tianduo Peng & Sheng Zhou & Zhiyi Yuan & Xunmin Ou, 2017. "Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Multiple Vehicle Fuel Pathways in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, November.
    19. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    20. Jianlei Lang & Shuiyuan Cheng & Ying Zhou & Beibei Zhao & Haiyan Wang & Shujing Zhang, 2013. "Energy and Environmental Implications of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-23, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:369-384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.