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Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050

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  • Hao, Han
  • Wang, Hewu
  • Yi, Ran

Abstract

As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China’s vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China’s oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China’s private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China’s vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Yi, Ran, 2011. "Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1351-1361.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:2:p:1351-1361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2017. "An overview of energy efficiency standards in China's transport sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 246-256.
    2. Koljonen, Tiina & Lehtilä, Antti, 2012. "The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 410-420.
    3. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
    4. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    5. Faria, Ricardo & Marques, Pedro & Moura, Pedro & Freire, Fausto & Delgado, Joaquim & de Almeida, Aníbal T., 2013. "Impact of the electricity mix and use profile in the life-cycle assessment of electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 271-287.
    6. repec:aen:journl:ej38-5-llorca is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hao, Han & Liu, Feiqi & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "Compression ignition of low-octane gasoline: Life cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 391-398.
    8. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Sarkis, Joseph, 2016. "Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 121-131.
    9. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Li, Weiqi & Guo, Bin, 2015. "Energy consumption and GHG emissions from China's freight transport sector: Scenarios through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 94-101.
    10. Lee, Yongseung & Kim, Chongman & Shin, Juneseuk, 2016. "A hybrid electric vehicle market penetration model to identify the best policy mix: A consumer ownership cycle approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 438-449.
    11. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2012. "Fuel consumption and life cycle GHG emissions by China’s on-road trucks: Future trends through 2050 and evaluation of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-251.
    12. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6520-6528.
    13. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Samhouri, Murad & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Rawashdeh, Mohammad, 2012. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Jordan using adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 128-135.
    14. repec:eee:appene:v:222:y:2018:i:c:p:313-328 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Llorca, Manuel & Baños, José & Somoza, José & Arbués, Pelayo, 2014. "A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport: An application to Latin America and the Caribbean," Efficiency Series Papers 2014/04, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    16. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    17. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    18. Hao, Han & Wang, Sinan & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan, 2016. "The impact of stepped fuel economy targets on automaker's light-weighting strategy: The China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 755-765.
    19. Al-Ghandoor, A., 2013. "An approach to energy savings and improved environmental impact through restructuring Jordan's transport sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 31-42.
    20. Wu, Na & Zhao, Shengchuan & Zhang, Qi, 2016. "A study on the determinants of private car ownership in China: Findings from the panel data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 186-195.
    21. repec:eee:appene:v:204:y:2017:i:c:p:544-559 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Robert Dixon & Xi Wang & Michael Wang & Ju Wang & Zhihong Zhang, 2011. "Development and demonstration of fuel cell vehicles and supporting infrastructure in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(7), pages 775-789, October.
    23. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:658-668 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei & Zhao, Fuquan & Li, Weiqi, 2016. "Natural gas as vehicle fuel in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 521-533.

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    Keywords

    Transport modeling; Vehicle ownership; China;

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