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Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050


  • Hao, Han
  • Wang, Hewu
  • Yi, Ran


As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China’s vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China’s oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China’s private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China’s vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Yi, Ran, 2011. "Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1351-1361.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:2:p:1351-1361
    DOI: 10.1016/

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Singh, S K & Maddala, G S, 1976. "A Function for Size Distribution of Incomes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 963-970, September.
    2. McDonald, James B, 1984. "Some Generalized Functions for the Size Distribution of Income," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 647-663, May.
    3. He, Kebin & Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Dongquan & An, Feng & Wang, Michael & Walsh, Michael P., 2005. "Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1499-1507, August.
    4. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    5. Esmaiel Abounoori & Patrick McCloughan, 2003. "A simple way to calculate the Gini Coefficient for grouped as well as ungrouped data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 505-509.
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    Transport modeling; Vehicle ownership; China;


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