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China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?

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  • Wang, Yunshi
  • Teter, Jacob
  • Sperling, Daniel

Abstract

China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year--roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3296-3306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Gambhir, Ajay & Tse, Lawrence K.C. & Tong, Danlu & Martinez-Botas, Ricardo, 2015. "Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 905-917.
    3. Liu, Yang & Wang, Yu & Huo, Hong, 2013. "Temporal and spatial variations in on-road energy use and CO2 emissions in China, 1978–2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 544-550.
    4. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Zeng, Jieyin (Jean), 2013. "The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-197.
    5. Zhao, Xin & Doering, Otto C. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2015. "The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 666-675.
    6. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2013. "Modelling the transport system in China and evaluating the current strategies towards the sustainable transport development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 347-357.
    7. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    8. Huo, Hong & Wang, Michael, 2012. "Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 17-29.
    9. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Liu, Huan & Huang, Ruikun & Un, Puikei & Zhou, Yu & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2014. "Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 247-257.
    10. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    11. Zheng, Bo & Zhang, Qiang & Borken-Kleefeld, Jens & Huo, Hong & Guan, Dabo & Klimont, Zbigniew & Peters, Glen P. & He, Kebin, 2015. "How will greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles be constrained in China around 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 230-240.
    12. Zhang, Hongjun & Chen, Wenying & Huang, Weilong, 2016. "TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1505-1514.
    13. Wang, Renjie & Wu, Ye & Ke, Wenwei & Zhang, Shaojun & Zhou, Boya & Hao, Jiming, 2015. "Can propulsion and fuel diversity for the bus fleet achieve the win–win strategy of energy conservation and environmental protection?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 92-103.
    14. Wu, Ye & Yang, Zhengdong & Lin, Bohong & Liu, Huan & Wang, Renjie & Zhou, Boya & Hao, Jiming, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 537-550.

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