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Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

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  • Peter H. Kobos
  • Jon D. Erickson
  • Thomas E. Drennen

Abstract

This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO2 emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature‐based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population growth rates, elasticity income ranges, fuel economy, and vehicle saturation. Countrywide base case results estimate growth from 4.22 to 54.33 passenger vehicles per thousand people from 1995 to 2025. Resulting passenger vehicle oil demands and CO2 emissions increase nearly 17‐fold.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter H. Kobos & Jon D. Erickson & Thomas E. Drennen, 2003. "Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(2), pages 200-217, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:21:y:2003:i:2:p:200-217
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byg005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
    2. ZhongXiang Zhang, 1998. "The Economics of Energy Policy in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1291, March.
    3. Keidel, Albert, 2001. "China's GDP expenditure accounts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 355-367.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Gan & Zifeng Lu & Hao Cai & Michael Wang & Xin He & Steven Przesmitzki, 2020. "Future private car stock in China: current growth pattern and effects of car sales restriction," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 289-306, March.
    2. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    3. Wang, Yunshi & Teter, Jacob & Sperling, Daniel, 2011. "China's soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3296-3306, June.
    4. Gallagher, Kelly Sims, 2006. "Limits to leapfrogging in energy technologies? Evidence from the Chinese automobile industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 383-394, March.
    5. Ding, Yanjun & Shen, Wei & Yang, Shuhong & Han, Weijian & Chai, Qinhu, 2013. "Car dieselization: A solution to China's energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 540-549.
    6. Yang Li & Kiyoshi Fujikawa & Junbo Wang & Xin Li & Yiyi Ju & Chenyi Chen, 2020. "The Potential and Trend of End-Of-Life Passenger Vehicles Recycling in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    7. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    8. Zhang, Shuwei & Jiang, Kejun & Liu, Deshun, 2007. "Passenger transport modal split based on budgets and implication for energy consumption: Approach and application in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4434-4443, September.
    9. Kobos, Peter H. & Malczynski, Leonard A. & Walker, La Tonya N. & Borns, David J. & Klise, Geoffrey T., 2018. "Timing is everything: A technology transition framework for regulatory and market readiness levels," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 211-225.
    10. Cumhur Erdem & Saban Nazlioglu, 2013. "Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 287-298, April.
    11. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.

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