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Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment

Author

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  • Yue Ren

    (China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

  • Xin Sun

    (China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd, No. 68
    Automotive Data of China (Tianjin) Co., Ltd.
    Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., Boxing 6th Road, Beijing Economic Development Zone)

  • Paul Wolfram

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)

  • Shaoqiong Zhao

    (China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

  • Xu Tang

    (China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

  • Yifei Kang

    (Beijing Yiwei New Energy Vehicles Big Data Application &Technology Research Center)

  • Dongchang Zhao

    (China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd, No. 68
    Automotive Data of China (Tianjin) Co., Ltd.
    Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., Boxing 6th Road, Beijing Economic Development Zone)

  • Xinzhu Zheng

    (China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

Abstract

Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are climate-friendly alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), an important but often ignored fact is that the climate mitigation benefits of BEVs are usually delayed. The manufacture of BEVs is more carbon-intensive than that of ICEVs, leaving a greenhouse gas (GHG) debt to be paid back in the future use phase. Here we analyze millions of vehicle data from the Chinese market and show that the GHG break-even time (GBET) of China’s BEVs ranges from zero (i.e., the production year) to over 11 years, with an average of 4.5 years. 8% of China’s BEVs produced and sold between 2016 and 2018 cannot pay back their GHG debt within the eight-year battery warranty. We suggest enhancing the share of BEVs reaching the GBET by promoting the effective substitution of BEVs for ICEVs instead of the single-minded pursuit of speeding up the BEV deployment race.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Ren & Xin Sun & Paul Wolfram & Shaoqiong Zhao & Xu Tang & Yifei Kang & Dongchang Zhao & Xinzhu Zheng, 2023. "Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38182-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38182-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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