Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials--a combined evaluation of past and future trends
This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach. Based on this model, companies can make better informed decisions for their market assessment and may use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments. Understanding future supply conditions is especially useful when selecting new technologies for products which require an intensive use of raw materials. As an example, the method is applied to the copper market as of 2006. It is important to emphasise that nobody can foresee the future of raw material prices. But we may aim to better understand the weaknesses of these markets which may lead to future supply shortages thus influencing price.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
- World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12426, April.
- repec:wbk:wbpubs:12425 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:34:y:2009:i:4:p:161-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.