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Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Brigitte Knopf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Yen-Heng Henry Chen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Hannah Förster

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Amit Kanudia

    (KanORS-EMR)

  • Ioanna Karkatsouli

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (University College London)

  • Tiina Koljonen

    (VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland)

  • Katja Schumacher

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Detlef van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences)

Abstract

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the “Energy Roadmap 2050” presented by the European Commission.

Suggested Citation

  • Brigitte Knopf & Yen-Heng Henry Chen & Enrica De Cian & Hannah Förster & Amit Kanudia & Ioanna Karkatsouli & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Katja Schumacher & Detlef van Vuuren, 2014. "Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System," Working Papers 2014.15, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrica De Cian & Ilkka Keppo & Johannes Bollen & Samuel Carrara & Hannah Förster & Michael Hübler & Amit Kanudia & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher, 2013. "European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications On Trade, Technology, And Energy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-28.
    2. Niklas Vahlne & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2014. "Energy Efficiency at the Base of the Pyramid: A System-Based Market Model for Improved Cooking Stove Adoption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(12), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Carlo Carraro & Massimo Tavoni & Thomas Longden & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "The Optimal Energy Mix in Power Generation and the Contribution from Natural Gas in Reducing Carbon Emissions to 2030 and Beyond," CESifo Working Paper Series 4432, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. repec:zbw:espost:167598 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jan Abrell & Clemens Gerbaulet & Franziska Holz & Casimir Lorenz & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1317, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Gianluca Santoni, 2017. "Value Added in Motion: Macroeconomic Implications of Energy Price Trajectories," Development Working Papers 426, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 24 Feb 2017.
    7. Brigitte Knopf & Bjorn Bakken & Samuel Carrara & Amit Kanudia & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Silvana Mima & Eva Schmid & Detlef Van Vuuren, 2013. "Transforming the European Energy System: Member States' Prospects within the EU Framework," Post-Print halshs-00936127, HAL.
    8. Frédéric Babonneau & Alain Haurie & Marc Vielle, 2016. "Assessment of balanced burden-sharing in the 2050 EU climate/energy roadmap: a metamodeling approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 505-519, February.
    9. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    11. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    12. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-mendelevitch is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-holz is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:538-:d:94673 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Baran Doda, Sam Fankhauser, 2017. "Energy policy and the power sector in the long run," GRI Working Papers 276, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Decarbonisation; Mitigation Scenarios; Model Comparison; Climate Change; EU Energy Roadmap 2050;

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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