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A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways

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  • Weitzel, Matthias
  • Vandyck, Toon
  • Rey Los Santos, Luis
  • Tamba, Marie
  • Temursho, Umed
  • Wojtowicz, Krzysztof

Abstract

The European Green Deal aims to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality by 2050. One of the key elements is a more stringent greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. We analyse the socio-economic consequences of alternative policy pathways to reach that target, either relying more on regulatory standards, on carbon pricing, or a mix of both. We develop a modelling framework that captures macro-economic and sectoral impacts and closely aligns economic and energy system modelling. We further decompose aggregate labour market outcomes into skill and occupation types, and downscale representative household results to micro-level household data to evaluate the distributional effects across income groups with heterogeneous expenditure patterns. By combining models and datasets, our framework enables incorporating a high degree of technological detail while revealing socio-economic aspects of the transition that may go unnoticed in coarse, aggregate assessments. In particular, our results highlight the heterogeneous impacts of climate policy across sectors, worker skill types and income groups, which may require particular attention in climate policy design and corresponding complementary measures to ensure a fair transition to a low-carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Weitzel, Matthias & Vandyck, Toon & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Tamba, Marie & Temursho, Umed & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof, 2023. "A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:204:y:2023:i:pa:s0921800922003214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Govinda R. Timilsina & Jing Cao & Mun Ho, 2018. "Carbon Tax For Achieving China’S Ndc: Simulations Of Some Design Features Using A Cge Model," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Managing the distributional effects of climate policies: A narrow path to a just transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Janos Varga & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2021. "E-QUEST – A Multi-Region Sectoral Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Energy Model Description and Applications to Reach the EU Climate Targets," European Economy - Discussion Papers 146, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    2. Boonman, Hettie & Pisciella, Paolo & Reynès, Frédéric, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of policy measures, technological progress and societal attitude in energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    3. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wang, Zu-Shan & Yunis, Manal & Kchouri, Bilal, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
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    6. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

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