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The world gas market in 2030 – development scenarios using the World Gas Model

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Huppmann
  • Ruud Egging
  • Franziska Holz
  • Christian Von Hirschhausen
  • Sophia Ruster

Abstract

We discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry through 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a multi-period strategic representation of the global natural gas sector, between 2005 and 2030. We specify a 'base case' and then analyse the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios, including various supply scenarios (e.g., emergence of large volumes of unconventional shale gas, or tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas), the impact of CO2-constraints, and regional scenarios focusing, respectively, on Russian and Caspian exports, the Arab Gulf, China and India, and the US Pacific coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, prices, and investments in pipelines, LNG terminals, and storage. However, the overall world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions of natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen & Sophia Ruster, 2011. "The world gas market in 2030 – development scenarios using the World Gas Model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 64-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:64-84
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Haftendorn, C. & Kemfert, C. & Holz, F., 2012. "What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 274-283.
    2. Kolb, Sebastian & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Frank, Jonas & Dettelbacher, Johannes & Ludwig, Ralf & Karl, Jürgen & Dillig, Marius, 2021. "Scenarios for the integration of renewable gases into the German natural gas market – A simulation-based optimisation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    4. Mihail Nikolaevich Dudin & Nikolaj Vasilevich Lyasnikov & Vladimir Dmitriyevich Sekerin & Anna Evgenevna Gorohova & Vyacheslav Viktorovich Burlakov, 2016. "Provision of Energy Security at the National Level in the Context of the Global Gas Transportation Industry Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 234-242.
    5. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Global steam coal markets until 2030: perspectives on production, trade and consumption under increasing carbon constraints," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 4, pages 103-122, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Anca Gabriela Ilie & Marinela Luminita Emanuela Zlatea & Cristina Negreanu & Dan Dumitriu & Alma Pentescu, 2023. "Reliance on Russian Federation Energy Imports and Renewable Energy in the European Union," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(64), pages 780-780, August.
    7. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    8. Alina Steblyanskaya & Xu Qingchao & Svetlana Razmanova & Nikolay Steblyanskiy & Artem Denisov, 2021. "China and Russia Energy Strategy Development: Arctic LNG," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 450-460.

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