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Freedom gas to Europe: Scenarios analyzed using the Global Gas Model

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  • Egging-Bratseth, Ruud
  • Holz, Franziska
  • Czempinski, Victoria

Abstract

State-of-the-art, open access numerical modeling of imperfectly competitive energy markets offers a sound and transparent way to address topical research questions in energy and commodity markets. We use an open access equilibrium model, the Global Gas Model (GGM), and sector-specific, politically motivated scenarios to investigate the prospects for sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. into the European energy market. We discuss the risks and opportunities for U.S. LNG and derive implications for policy, business, and finance in the energy sector. We find that Europe is not an attractive market for US LNG in the base case and in scenarios of moderate support of U.S. LNG flows into Europe. In these scenarios, Asia offers higher prices for US LNG and draws substantially higher import volumes. Our modeling results show that the interconnectedness of global gas markets due to an abundance of LNG import capacity in Europe and other regions—particularly Asia—allows for adjustments to global trade patterns that mitigate the consequences of regional disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Czempinski, Victoria, 2021. "Freedom gas to Europe: Scenarios analyzed using the Global Gas Model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000817
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101460
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    Cited by:

    1. Selei, Adrienn & Takácsné Tóth, Borbála, 2022. "A modelling-based assessment of EU supported natural gas projects of common interest," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Goran Durakovic & Hongyu Zhang & Brage Rugstad Knudsen & Asgeir Tomasgard & Pedro Crespo del Granado, 2023. "Decarbonizing the European energy system in the absence of Russian gas: Hydrogen uptake and carbon capture developments in the power, heat and industry sectors," Papers 2308.08953, arXiv.org.
    3. Ning Lin & Robert E. Brooks, 2021. "Global Liquified Natural Gas Trade under Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-30, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Numerical modeling; Natural gas; Liquefied natural gas; Energy policy; USA; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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