IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/1994v15-02-a01.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?

Author

Listed:
  • Hillard G. Huntington

Abstract

This paper reviews forecasts of oil prices over the 1980s that were made in 1980. It identifies the sources of errors due to such factors as exogenous GNP assumptions, resource supply conditions outside the cartel, and demand adjustments to price changes. Through 1986, the first two factors account for most of the difference between projected and actual prices. After 1986, misspecification of the demand adjustments becomes a particularly troublesome problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillard G. Huntington, 1994. "Oil Price Forecasting in the 1980s: What Went Wrong?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994v15-02-a01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=1154
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongtao Chen & Lianghua Chen, 2015. "Multifractal spectrum analysis of Brent crude oil futures prices volatility in intercontinental exchange," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(1/2/3), pages 93-108.
    2. Paul Stevens, 2016. "The role of oil and gas in the development of the global economy," WIDER Working Paper Series 175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Stevens, Paul, 1995. "The determination of oil prices 1945-1995 : A diagrammatic interpretation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 861-870, October.
    4. repec:bpj:jossai:v:2:y:2014:i:3:p:193-205:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zhang, Xun & Lai, K.K. & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2008. "A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 905-918, May.
    6. Dees, Stephane & Karadeloglou, Pavlos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 178-191, January.
    7. repec:eee:appene:v:220:y:2018:i:c:p:138-153 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zhang, Xun & Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2009. "Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price: An EMD-based event analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 768-778, September.
    9. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Component structure for nonstationary time series: Application to benchmark oil prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 971-983, December.
    10. repec:bpj:jossai:v:1:y:2013:i:1:p:38-59:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    12. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
    13. Gori, Fabio, 2016. "Mass and energy-capital conservation equations to forecast the oil price evolution with accumulation or depletion of the resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 746-760.
    14. Tang, Linghui & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2002. "An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 577-596, November.
    15. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
    16. repec:eee:phsmap:v:501:y:2018:i:c:p:98-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Baomin Dong & Xuefeng Li & Boqiang Lin, 2010. "Forecasting Long-Run Coal Price in China: A Shifting Trend Time-Series Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 499-519, August.
    18. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.
    19. repec:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:219-227 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Shangkun Deng & Akito Sakurai, 2014. "Crude Oil Spot Price Forecasting Based on Multiple Crude Oil Markets and Timeframes," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(5), pages 1-19, April.
    21. O'Neill, Brian C. & Desai, Mausami, 2005. "Accuracy of past projections of US energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 979-993, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1994v15-02-a01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.