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Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments

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  • Goes, George Vasconcelos
  • Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves
  • de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio
  • de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria
  • Grottera, Carolina

Abstract

To foster the energy transition towards a low carbon economy, countries must set and report climate policy instruments. Since the Paris Agreement, nations have been strongly encouraged to increase ambitions and reduce carbon emissions in the coming decades. However, a wave of emerging parties has gained momentum around the world, advocating a hostile stance on climate change mitigation policies. Brazil, one of the traditional leaders of the climate agenda, has experienced an uptake in its greenhouse gas emissions, with no expectation of reversing this trend. The government has signaled that only economically attractive mitigation options will be considered. For this reason, it is crucial to develop scenarios that consider this upward trend. The model estimates carbon emissions at the highest level of detail available, providing abatement cost over time. The results indicate that Brazil has potential to meet its transport related NDC commitments, with 13% cuts by 2030 (26MtCO2e) achieved with an intensive use of biofuels. However, the cost-benefit of this strategy would not correspond to the mitigation potential, with financial losses above 1US$/tCO2e. The most suitable alternatives would be investments in electromobility and infrastructure, with gains exceeding 200US$/tCO2e. These outcomes may aware decision-makers about the cost-effectiveness of certain policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Goes, George Vasconcelos & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio & de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria & Grottera, Carolina, 2020. "Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-311.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:157:y:2020:i:c:p:303-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.05.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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