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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy

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This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways related to the availability of future technological options have been assessed for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and bioenergy. If CCS technologies would not develop, a 2°C pathway would have a similar mitigation trajectory in the first half of the century as a 1.5°C scenario with CCS.

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  • Kimon Keramidas & Stephane Tchung-Ming & Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Jacques Despres & Andreas Schmitz & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Burkhard Schade & B, 2018. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy," JRC Working Papers JRC113446, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113446
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113446
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    1. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, December.
    2. David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Elmar Kriegler & Jessica Strefler & Nico Bauer & Marian Leimbach & Alexander Popp & Jan Dietrich & Florian Humpenöder & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 705-718, April.
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    4. Cohen, Gail & Jalles, Joao Tovar & Loungani, Prakash & Marto, Ricardo, 2018. "The long-run decoupling of emissions and output: Evidence from the largest emitters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 58-68.
    5. Alban Kitous & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn & Rita Van Dingenen & Joe Spadaro & Mike Holland, 2017. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality," JRC Working Papers JRC107944, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    1. Mantulet, Gabin & Bidaud, Adrien & Mima, Silvana, 2020. "The role of biomass gasification and methanisation in the decarbonisation strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. TCHUNG-MING Stephane & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana R. & KERAMIDAS Kimon, 2018. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances," JRC Working Papers JRC114840, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. REY LOS SANTOS Luis & WOJTOWICZ Krzysztof & TAMBA Marie & VANDYCK Toon & WEITZEL Matthias & SAVEYN Bert & TEMURSHO Umed, 2018. "Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses," JRC Working Papers JRC113981, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Christoph Boehringer & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2020. "Europe beyond Coal - An Economic and Climate Impact Assessment," Working Papers V-430-20, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Goes, George Vasconcelos & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio & de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria & Grottera, Carolina, 2020. "Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-311.
    6. Toon Vandyck & Kimon Keramidas & Stéphane Tchung-Ming & Matthias Weitzel & Rita Dingenen, 2020. "Quantifying air quality co-benefits of climate policy across sectors and regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1501-1517, December.

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    Keywords

    Paris Agreement; energy sector; Mid-century strategy; Long-Term Strategy; 2°C; 1.5°C; UNFCCC; climate change mitigation;
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