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Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses

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Abstract

In this document the economic balances for the Baseline scenario used in the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2018 are presented. The Baseline scenario represents a projection of the world economy with corresponding energy demand and GHGs emissions under the assumption of current climate and energy policies and also realization of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in line with Paris agreement. As this scenario still does not allow avoiding catastrophic climate change in the future, it is used as a reference to compare alternative scenarios with more stringent policy measures. Economic balances are supplemented by energy balances, where the latter are coming from energy models, but are consistent with economic data. Finally we show GHGs evolution over time that comes from economic activity presented in the Baseline. The procedure that was used to generate Baseline scenario is called PIRAMID which stands for: Platform to Integrate, Reconcile and Align Model-based Input-output Data. PIRAMID is a new methodology to project Multi-Regional Input-Output tables over time. This approach allows for integrating data from external models and databases. The result is a series of consistent and transparent IO tables.

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  • REY LOS SANTOS Luis & WOJTOWICZ Krzysztof & TAMBA Marie & VANDYCK Toon & WEITZEL Matthias & SAVEYN Bert & TEMURSHO Umed, 2018. "Global macroeconomic balances for mid-century climate analyses," JRC Working Papers JRC113981, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113981
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113981
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    1. Kimon Keramidas & Stephane Tchung-Ming & Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Jacques Despres & Andreas Schmitz & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Burkhard Schade & B, 2018. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy," JRC Working Papers JRC113446, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
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    Cited by:

    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    2. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    3. Umed Temursho & Manuel Alejandro Cardenete & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Luis Rey & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Projecting input-output tables for model baselines," JRC Working Papers JRC120513, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. Christoph Boehringer & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2020. "Europe beyond Coal - An Economic and Climate Impact Assessment," Working Papers V-430-20, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.

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    Keywords

    Baseline; CGE; Input-Output tables; Macroeconomic projections;

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