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The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

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  • David Klein

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  • Gunnar Luderer
  • Elmar Kriegler
  • Jessica Strefler
  • Nico Bauer
  • Marian Leimbach
  • Alexander Popp
  • Jan Dietrich
  • Florian Humpenöder
  • Hermann Lotze-Campen
  • Ottmar Edenhofer

Abstract

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Elmar Kriegler & Jessica Strefler & Nico Bauer & Marian Leimbach & Alexander Popp & Jan Dietrich & Florian Humpenöder & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 705-718, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:705-718
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0940-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Stehfest, Elke, 2009. "Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4220-4230, November.
    2. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
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    2. Mendiara, T. & García-Labiano, F. & Abad, A. & Gayán, P. & de Diego, L.F. & Izquierdo, M.T. & Adánez, J., 2018. "Negative CO2 emissions through the use of biofuels in chemical looping technology: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 657-684.
    3. Bhave, Amit & Taylor, Richard H.S. & Fennell, Paul & Livingston, William R. & Shah, Nilay & Dowell, Niall Mac & Dennis, John & Kraft, Markus & Pourkashanian, Mohammed & Insa, Mathieu & Jones, Jenny & , 2017. "Screening and techno-economic assessment of biomass-based power generation with CCS technologies to meet 2050 CO2 targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 481-489.
    4. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal, 2019. "Household vulnerability and resilience in flood hazards from disaster-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 337-354, October.
    5. Haro, Pedro & Aracil, Cristina & Vidal-Barrero, Fernando & Ollero, Pedro, 2015. "Rewarding of extra-avoided GHG emissions in thermochemical biorefineries incorporating Bio-CCS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 255-266.
    6. Christoph Weissbart, 2018. "Decarbonization of Power Markets under Stability and Fairness: Do They Influence Efficiency?," ifo Working Paper Series 270, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Kimon Keramidas & Stephane Tchung-Ming & Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez & Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Jacques Despres & Andreas Schmitz & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz & Burkhard Schade & B, 2018. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy," JRC Working Papers JRC113446, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Huang, Xiaodan & Chang, Shiyan & Zheng, Dingqian & Zhang, Xiliang, 2020. "The role of BECCS in deep decarbonization of China's economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Vassilis Daioglou & Steven K. Rose & Nico Bauer & Alban Kitous & Matteo Muratori & Fuminori Sano & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Kimon Keramidas & David Klein & Florian Lebl, 2020. "Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1603-1620, December.
    10. Arroyo-Currás, Tabaré & Bauer, Nico & Kriegler, Elmar & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Aboumahboub, Tino & Giannousakis, Anastasis & Hilaire, Jérôme, 2015. "Carbon leakage in a fragmented climate regime: The dynamic response of global energy markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 192-203.
    11. Gibon, Thomas & Arvesen, Anders & Hertwich, Edgar G., 2017. "Life cycle assessment demonstrates environmental co-benefits and trade-offs of low-carbon electricity supply options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1283-1290.

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