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Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

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  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann
  • Popp, Alexander
  • Beringer, Tim
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Bondeau, Alberte
  • Rost, Stefanie
  • Lucht, Wolfgang

Abstract

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander & Beringer, Tim & Müller, Christoph & Bondeau, Alberte & Rost, Stefanie & Lucht, Wolfgang, 2010. "Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(18), pages 2188-2196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:18:p:2188-2196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002
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    1. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    1. Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011. "A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115993, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Maryia Mandryk & Jonathan Doelman & Elke Stehfest, 2015. "Assessment of global land availability: land supply for agriculture," FOODSECURE Technical papers 7, LEI Wageningen UR.
    3. Kriegler, Elmar, 2011. "Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 594-596, July.
    4. Helin, Janne & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2019. "A model for estimating phosphorus requirements of world food production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Massigoge, Ignacio & Carcedo, Ana & de Borja Reis, Andre Froes & Mitchell, Clay & Day, Scott & Oliverio, Joaquin & Truong, Sandra H. & McCormick, Ryan F. & Rotundo, Jose & Lira, Sara & Ciampitti, Igna, 2023. "Exploring avenues for agricultural intensification: A case study for maize-soybean in the Southern US region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Gabriela Ileana Iacobuţă & Niklas Höhne & Heleen Laura van Soest & Rik Leemans, 2021. "Transitioning to Low-Carbon Economies under the 2030 Agenda: Minimizing Trade-Offs and Enhancing Co-Benefits of Climate-Change Action for the SDGs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Batidzirai, B. & Smeets, E.M.W. & Faaij, A.P.C., 2012. "Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 6598-6630.
    8. Rega, Carlo & Helming, John & Paracchini, Maria Luisa, 2019. "Environmentalism and localism in agricultural and land-use policies can maintain food production while supporting biodiversity. Findings from simulations of contrasting scenarios in the EU," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    10. Hussain, C.M. Iftekhar & Norton, Brian & Duffy, Aidan, 2017. "Technological assessment of different solar-biomass systems for hybrid power generation in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1115-1129.
    11. van Wijk, Mark T., 2014. "From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 378-388.
    12. Kalt, Gerald & Mayer, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Kaufmann, Lisa & Lauk, Christian & Matej, Sarah & Röös, Elin & Theurl, Michaela C. & Erb, Karl-Heinz, 2021. "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    13. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2012. "Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005–2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1180-1192.
    14. David Klein & Gunnar Luderer & Elmar Kriegler & Jessica Strefler & Nico Bauer & Marian Leimbach & Alexander Popp & Jan Dietrich & Florian Humpenöder & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2014. "The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 705-718, April.
    15. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Bonsch, Markus & Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Alexanger Popp and & Stevanovic, Miodrag, 2013. "Validation of land use models," Conference papers 330164, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Yigit Kazancoglu & Cisem Lafci & Anil Kumar & Sunil Luthra & Jose Arturo Garza‐Reyes & Yalcin Berberoglu, 2024. "The role of agri‐food 4.0 in climate‐smart farming for controlling climate change‐related risks: A business perspective analysis," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 2788-2802, May.
    18. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
    19. Servaas Storm, 2011. "Forum 2011," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 399-418, January.
    20. Frieder Graef & Götz Uckert & Jana Schindler & Hannes Jochen König & Hadijah A. Mbwana & Anja Fasse & Lutengano Mwinuka & Henry Mahoo & Laurent N. Kaburire & Paul Saidia & Yusto Mugisha Yustas & Valer, 2017. "Expert-based ex-ante assessments of potential social, ecological, and economic impacts of upgrading strategies for improving food security in rural Tanzania using the ScalA-FS approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(6), pages 1255-1270, December.
    21. Long, Huiling & Li, Xiaobing & Wang, Hong & Jia, Jingdun, 2013. "Biomass resources and their bioenergy potential estimation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 344-352.
    22. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Seco, Pablo Tirado & Samson, Réjean, 2014. "Uncertainty management in a macro life cycle assessment of a 2005–2025 European bioenergy policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-61.
    23. Bourne, Michael & Childs, Jack & Philippidis, George, 2011. "Reaping What Others Have Sown: Measuring the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Spanish Agriculture," Conference papers 332166, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    24. Graef, F. & Uckert, G., 2018. "Gender determines scientists’ sustainability assessments of food-securing upgrading strategies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 84-93.

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