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Climate Change Mitigation And Future Food Consumption Patterns

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  • Valin, Hugo
  • Havlik, Petr
  • Mosnier, Aline
  • Obersteiner, Michael

Abstract

Discussions on climate change increasingly emphasize the contribution of agricultural activities to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions. In this paper, we investigate from a supply to demand side perspective the stress between food demand and climate change challenges up until 2030. We examine how more stringent climate change mitigation policies could alter agricultural markets and put at risk the nutrition possibilities of populations. We use for this purpose GLOBIOM, an applied partial equilibrium model covering, at the world scale and a fine grid resolution, the main land-based sectors: agriculture, forestry and bioenergy. For this exercise, the model is fully linked to a semi-flexible endogenous demand system with non-linear Engel’s curves. Our results show that although forest related measures could be efficiently deployed without harming food security, a scenario of massive development of bioenergy would have more tangible impacts on food availability. Our most constraining option is a decrease in emissions from cattle, which would impose a reduction in the consumption of ruminant meat and milk. We illustrate that considering the current dynamic of consumption patterns, these latter policies, if implemented on the supply side directly, could have very uneven effects to the world’s diet and harm primarily developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2010. "Climate Change Mitigation And Future Food Consumption Patterns," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116392, European Association of Agricultural Economists;Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa115:116392
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    3. Havlík, Petr & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Böttcher, Hannes & Fritz, Steffen & Skalský, Rastislav & Aoki, Kentaro & Cara, Stéphane De & Kindermann, Georg & Kraxner, Florian & Leduc, Sylvain & , 2011. "Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5690-5702, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Reisinger & P. Havlik & K. Riahi & O. Vliet & M. Obersteiner & M. Herrero, 2013. "Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 677-690, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; Health Economics and Policy; C61; Q11; Q24; Q54;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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