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Klum: A Simple Model Of Global Agricultural Land Use As A Coupling Tool Of Economy And Vegetation

Author

Listed:
  • Kerstin Ronneberger
  • Uwe A. Schneider
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of future crop allocation under climate change suggest that cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are changed show that the observed results are dominated by the induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Ronneberger & Uwe A. Schneider & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Klum: A Simple Model Of Global Agricultural Land Use As A Coupling Tool Of Economy And Vegetation," Working Papers FNU-65, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:65
    as

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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/KLUM_WP.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1996. "Land use and cover in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-181, June.
    3. Tongeren, Frank van & Meijl, Hans van & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 26(2), November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kerstin Ronneberger & Maria Berrittella & Francesco Bosello & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment," Working Papers FNU-105, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    2. repec:eee:ecomod:v:291:y:2014:i:c:p:152-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 507-517, September.
    4. Panichelli, Luis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2015. "Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 344-360.
    5. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs," Congress Papers 124380, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Gary W. Yohe & Richard S.J. Tol & Dean Murphy, 2007. "On Setting Near-term Climate Policy while the Dust Begins to Settle: The Legacy of the Stern Review," Working Papers FNU-129, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Mar 2007.
    7. Melania Michetti & Matteo Zampieri, 2014. "Climate–Human–Land Interactions: A Review of Major Modelling Approaches," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-41, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global land-use model; crop allocation; feed back loop; climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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