Klum: A Simple Model Of Global Agricultural Land Use As A Coupling Tool Of Economy And Vegetation
The Kleines Land Use Model (KLUM), is a global agricultural landallocation model, developed as a tool to dynamically couple global state-of-the-art vegetation and economy models. The allocation process is based on profit maximisation, assuming risk aversion and decreasing returns to scales. The model is suited for long-term predictions, acknowledges spatial and biophysical diversity and enables the data exchange with common vegetation models. Finally, the effective simplicity of the mechanism facilitates online-coupling with larger models. Simulations of future crop allocation under climate change suggest that cultivation of cereals would fall in favour of minor crops such as vegetables and fruits. Total revenue of crop production is predicted to increase for most parts of the world. The comparison with two reference scenarios, where solely prices or yields are changed show that the observed results are dominated by the induced price changes. Losses in revenue prevail and changes in area are more balanced over the world when only the much smaller yield changes are applied. Yet, the simple sum of price and yield effects on crop allocation can differ in magnitude and sign from the real dynamics, emphasising the importance of simultaneous inclusion of economic and biophysical aspects of land-use decisions.
|Date of creation:||May 2005|
|Date of revision:||May 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg|
Phone: +49 40 42838 6593
Fax: +49 40 42838 7009
Web page: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van Tongeren, Frank & van Meijl, Hans & Surry, Yves, 2001.
"Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment,"
Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 149-172, November.
- Tongeren, Frank van & Meijl, Hans van & Surry, Yves, 2001. "Global models applied to agricultural and trade policies: a review and assessment," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 26(2), November.
- Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1996. "Land use and cover in ecological economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 157-181, June.
- Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Uwe Schneider)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.