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The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Pycroft

    (European Commission)

  • Jan Abrell

    (European Commission
    ETH Zurich)

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar

    (European Commission)

Abstract

This paper investigates the world-wide economic cost of rapid sea-level rise of the kind that could be caused by accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic and/or the Greenland ice sheets. Such an event would have direct impacts on economic activities located near the coastline and indirect impacts further inland. Using data from the DIVA model on sea floods, river floods, land loss, salinisation and forced migration, we analyse the effects of these damages in a computable general equilibrium model for 25 world regions. We consider three sea-level rise scenarios that correspond to 0.47, 1.12 and 1.75 m by the 2080s. By incorporating a wider range of damage categories, implemented in an economy-wide framework and including very rapid sea-level rise, the study offers a new contribution to climate change impact studies. We find that the loss of GDP worldwide is 0.5 % in the highest sea-level rise scenario, with a loss of welfare (equivalent variation) of almost 2 % world-wide. Within these aggregates, there are large regional disparities, with the Central Europe North region and parts of South-East Asia and South Asia being especially prone to high costs (welfare losses in the range of 4–12 %). The analysis assumes that there is not public adaptation, which would substantially lower the costs. In this way, the analysis demonstrates what is at risk, and could be used to justify adaptation expenses.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Pycroft & Jan Abrell & Juan-Carlos Ciscar, 2016. "The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 225-253, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:64:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-014-9866-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-014-9866-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    4. Richard S. J. Tol & Robert J. Nicholls & Sally Brown & Jochen Hinkel & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Tom Spencer & Mark Schuerch, 2016. "Comment on ‘The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment’," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(2), pages 341-344, June.
    5. Wojtek Szewczyk & Luc Feyen & Anca Matei & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Eamonn Mulholland & Antonio Soria, 2020. "Economic analysis of selected climate impacts. JRC PESETA IV project –Task 14," JRC Research Reports JRC120452, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Osamu Nishiura & Makoto Tamura & Shinichiro Fujimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Junya Takakura & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.
    7. Wojciech Szewczyk & Juan Carlos Ciscar Martinez & Ignazio Mongelli & Antonio Soria Ramirez, 2018. "JRC PESETA III Project: Economic integration and spillover analysis," JRC Research Reports JRC113810, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Makoto Tamura & Naoko Kumano & Mizuki Yotsukuri & Hiromune Yokoki, 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 363-377, March.
    9. Johnson, Justin Andrew & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas & Nootenboom, Chris & Polasky, Stephen & Roxburgh, Toby, 2020. "Global Futures: Modelling the global economic impacts of environmental change to support policy-making," Technical Papers 323944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Alessandro Ravina, 2020. "The Impact of Low-Carbon Policy on Stock Returns," Post-Print hal-03045804, HAL.
    11. Tom Spencer & Alexandre K. Magnan & Simon Donner & Matthias Garschagen & James Ford & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Colette C. C. Wabnitz, 2024. "Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-19, January.
    12. Asuncion, Ruben Carlo & Lee, Minsoo, 2017. "Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 507, Asian Development Bank.
    13. Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Alessandro Ravina, 2020. "The Impact of Low-Carbon Policy on Stock Returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03045804, HAL.
    14. Sturla F. Kvamsdal & Ivan Belik & Arnt Ove Hopland & Yuanhao Li, 2021. "A Machine Learning Analysis of the Recent Environmental and Resource Economics Literature," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(1), pages 93-115, May.

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